Hehe Andrew,
You're just too damned intelligent.
Why did you ever leave the goat-porn business?
I'm glad you raised the issue here. While I think the discussion will bore the rest of the membership, I think it will suit the tobacco pedants like you and me. Thanks for the opportunity and impetus to think about this a little more deeply. It's been a refreshing exercise.
As a practical matter, you're spot on. But let's reformulate and deconstruct your assertion for clarity.
Starting with...
"There is no "Cuban cigar taste" that is diagnostic of a cigar's being manufactured in Cuba."
This actually contains three ideas.
First, that there is a region in "taste space" that is mapped out by Cuban cigars.
Second, that a Cuban cigar in this taste space can be identified as being from this taste space. And
third, that it can be distinguished from a non-Cuban cigar.
The first point must be true as all it says is that Cuban cigars have a taste. Not that it is distinctive, characteristic, or anything else. Simply that the flavor Cuban cigars can be mapped in the same space as any other cigar. So I accept this point.
The second and third points are the ones put to test in your blind taste test challenges. The reason why I say the average result of all such challenges will approach 50/50 is illustrated in the following graphic. It represents a simplified "taste space" consisting of only two dimensions. These might be woodiness and earthiness or any other arbitrary pair. The region enclosed by the
RED line represents the envelope in this taste space that all Cuban cigars will fall into. The
BLUE encloses all Dominican puros taste possibilities and the
GREEN line encloses Honduran cigars.
You can see that in region
A, Cuban cigars are distinctive in that no cigars from either of the two countries contain this combination of flavor characteristics. Here, Cuban cigars taste like no other cigars except those Cuban cigars. The same holds true for regions
B and
C. In region
D, however, Cubans from this region will taste identical to Dominican cigars. In region
E, Cuban, Domican, and Honduran cigars are mutually indistinguishable.
I would hazard to guess that region
E is, in actuality, the largest region of all and by far. After all, don't cigars mostly taste like other cigars? Distinctive combinations of characteristics are actually a fairly small percentage of the enclosed taste space. So, if region
E just happens to be where you pull your challenge cigars from, and the forced choice is "Cuban" or "not Cuban" then, analytically, the odds must be exactly 50/50.
What do you think?
Wilkey