Once the embargo lifted......

[golfgar]

Matt,

You bring up some very interesting points. If Castro croaks and the US steps in to establish a democratic government, then there's no reason why the embargo would not be lifted. I predict this will happen within the next 5 years. It's said that Raul is more hard-headed than Castro, and I don't think the US is going to stand by and watch Raul take over. There may be a major uprising in Cuba when Castro dies. No one knows for sure. There is a lot of press stating that the US is ready to move in and assist in creating a democratic govt when the time is right.

It's simple supply and demand. If the demand for Cuban's goes up, then so will the price. It's going to be a race for which B&M's can carry the Cuban's first. There are a lot of cigar shops in the US, and many of them will want a peice of the action. Quality may go down a bit. If quality and production remains the same, Cuban's in the US will be very expensive and hard to get.

There are a lot of possibilities. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Having a democratic process in Cuba is one thing, but I think the biggest reason that there has been no lifting of the embargo to this point is a fact alluded to in an earlier post, that is the return of the property to the Cubans who owned it before Castro siezed it. We trade successfully with other Communist regimes and even invest in those countries. Why hasn't the same been true with Cuba? One of the reasons is the property rights. We appreciate personal property rights (blighting for development excluded )in this country and it will be a while before those issues are resolved and whether there is a democratic process or not some settlement of that issue will need to be resolved in order for the trade ban to be lifted. That will take a while. I would think, but maybe not, Altadis and Habanos SA have considered what they will do and have made contingent plans, but I am not as sure about other industries.

 

[Mr Peat]

Now now my dear sir. Learn from my last thread. I am getting a spanking over my attitude. So please watch the attitude and the words. Thank you kindly.
I am optimistic about the embargo. It will happen in our lifetime.

Oh dear god. Did you just say that to a FOG that has earned a lot of respect in the cigar online community?

I just have to say..who has the popcorn? :whistling:

 

[smokelaw1]

Now now my dear sir. Learn from my last thread. I am getting a spanking over my attitude. So please watch the attitude and the words. Thank you kindly.
I am optimistic about the embargo. It will happen in our lifetime.

Oh dear god. Did you just say that to a FOG that has earned a lot of respect in the cigar online community?

I just have to say..who has the popcorn? :whistling:

No, he said it to Bill...but still!

alpi...notice how long he has been around these parts? FOR THE MOST PART, people who have problem with his attitude have destroyed themselves and gone away, or learned to deal with it, or learned to ignore it.

Watch the attitude and the words....CC! :laugh:

 

[Matt R]

The US will need the aid of the UK, Spain and South American countries to broker any kind of democratic government in Cuba. These countries have relations with Cuba already and I am sure would have something to say if we just waltzed in and took over.

 

[alpi57]

The US will need the aid of the UK, Spain and South American countries to broker any kind of democratic government in Cuba. These countries have relations with Cuba already and I am sure would have something to say if we just waltzed in and took over.

Based onmy observations, people love Fidel as a symbol but hate the system and think that revolution has failed them. Many Cubans would tell you that before the fall of the Soviets it was like heaven and they lived well. But after is a different story. It seems the Canadians and Chinese have the best relationship with them. They are the only one who did not critisize them after the human rights conference at the UN last year, hence enjoying a favorite status.
I think embargo will be lifted and it will be a chaotic 5-10 years. It will be interesting though. History in the making.

 

[moki]

What do you guys think about this?
Are we going to see the abundance that exist in other parts of the world?
What is the competition going to do about it?
How will that impact quality?
How will it impact the prices?

............food for thought.

Assuming the embargo does get lifted (let's side-step the whole issue of whether it will or not), I think some interesting things will happen.

First, I think quality brands like Fuente, Padron, Ashton, and others will fare reasonably well. They have excellent product, established distribution chains, relationships with vendors, and people know and like the taste profile of their cigars.

Brands like Drew Estates and Macanudo will sadly continue to do well also.

I think it will take some time for distribution to get ramped up, though I'm sure there are contingency plans in place, I don't think it will be a shocking change in the industry, but rather a gradual one.

The world's largest market for cigars is the USA; as such Habanos SA will definitely want a piece of it. Given the proximity to Cuba, and the size of the market, I think it's likely that any shortage of cigars will be felt in the UK, Europe, Hong Kong, etc. I've spoken with a vendor in the UK who hopes the embargo is never lifted, because he fears that product will go to the USA first, given the market size. Sounds reasonable to me.

Aficionados won't particularly care, because the various tobacco/import taxes will ensure that the prices they will be paying to buy locally will be much higher in most states than if they continue to use the established vendors they do now.

So the real wild card is how much the average consumer will care. There will likely be a rush to try the fabled Cuban cigar... but once people become accustomed to it, I don't think people will flock to them en masse any more than they would the introduction of a new line of cigars being introduced here.

 

[alpi57]

What do you guys think about this?
Are we going to see the abundance that exist in other parts of the world?
What is the competition going to do about it?
How will that impact quality?
How will it impact the prices?

............food for thought.

Assuming the embargo does get lifted (let's side-step the whole issue of whether it will or not), I think some interesting things will happen.

First, I think quality brands like Fuente, Padron, Ashton, and others will fare reasonably well. They have excellent product, established distribution chains, relationships with vendors, and people know and like the taste profile of their cigars.

Brands like Drew Estates and Macanudo will sadly continue to do well also.

I think it will take some time for distribution to get ramped up, though I'm sure there are contingency plans in place, I don't think it will be a shocking change in the industry, but rather a gradual one.

The world's largest market for cigars is the USA; as such Habanos SA will definitely want a piece of it. Given the proximity to Cuba, and the size of the market, I think it's likely that any shortage of cigars will be felt in the UK, Europe, Hong Kong, etc. I've spoken with a vendor in the UK who hopes the embargo is never lifted, because he fears that product will go to the USA first, given the market size. Sounds reasonable to me.

Aficionados won't particularly care, because the various tobacco/import taxes will ensure that the prices they will be paying to buy locally will be much higher in most states than if they continue to use the established vendors they do now.

So the real wild card is how much the average consumer will care. There will likely be a rush to try the fabled Cuban cigar... but once people become accustomed to it, I don't think people will flock to them en masse any more than they would the introduction of a new line of cigars being introduced here.

Agree with most of your assessments. Infact General Cigars and Altadis are buying the rights to the name brands and introducing them as non-Cubans here in US (e.g. Trinidad, Bolivar, Cohiba, etc) and in the event the embargo is lifted they will have those brands in their pocket. At least so I am told by my friends in the business.

I also agree that US is the largest world market for anything and Habanos S.A. will kill to get into this market except that the Spaniards own 75% right to their distributorship and you know how we fare in Europe these days.

But once it comes, and it will come, it will be the late 80,s and early 90,s all over again with everyone and their grandmother rushing to have the long forbidden fruit which will only serve to destroy quality and reputations.
So I fear the lift will not have any good effect for sometime........I hope not.

 

[moki]

I also agree that US is the largest world market for anything and Habanos S.A. will kill to get into this market except that the Spaniards own 75% right to their distributorship and you know how we fare in Europe these days.

Business is business, trust me, they'll be falling all over themselves to get into the market. We're faring quite well in Europe in terms of business relationships, so I think this is a non-issue.

In any event, I personally don't care either way. I'll continue to get my cigars from existing sources, the 37% NYS tobacco tax, 8% sales tax, and import duties will take care of that...

 

[Diselfitter]

Interesting point of views that are being thrown out there. And they seem plausible.

So the question really is, how will affect you, or me. And what are you willing to do.

For me. I have enough to sustain me for a while, and I plan on getting more.

If the Embargo is lifted, I can see the price spiking in the the sales of Cuban cigars, also known that Cuban tobacco is a finite product, they can only produce so much, so I would think there would be less waste of tobacco, so the quality you see today will most likely drop to keep up with demands, At some point in the future I suspect that things would level out as many buyers would return to other cigars as well.

But hey such is life in supply and demand.

So while I wait, I also buy. If it happens I will have enough and I could focus my attention on something different, while others are looking the other way, Like Padrons, OpusX, Diamond Crown, etc.



Deez

 

[Strayvector]

Let's not lose sight of other industries in Cuba. Personally, I'm not too worried about the cigars. I, for one, am looking for a good steady supply of Havana Club and Varadero rums (without paying outrageous shipping charges). I'd love to see the end of the embargo to get this.



edited cuz several helpings of HC seem to have diminished my typing and grammatical skills.

 

[alpi57]

Let's not lose sight of other industries in Cuba. Personally, I'm not too worried about the cigars. I, for one, am looking for a good steady supply of Havana Club and Varadero rums (without paying outrageous shipping charges). I'd love to see the end of the embargo to get this.



edited cuz several helpings of HC seem to have diminished my typing and grammatical skills.

No worries there. Havana Club is readily available online and in Mexican market.

 

[Strayvector]

No worries there. Havana Club is readily available online and in Mexican market.

Granted, but unlike cigars, I have yet to find a merchant that will ship me bottles of liquor with little to no shipping charges, and even though I live 90 minutes from the border, its not a journey I like to take.

 

[alpi57]

No worries there. Havana Club is readily available online and in Mexican market.

Granted, but unlike cigars, I have yet to find a merchant that will ship me bottles of liquor with little to no shipping charges, and even though I live 90 minutes from the border, its not a journey I like to take.

It is a fairly heavy bottle. I don't know how you can side step shipping charges.

 

[Mr Peat]

A few years back I had to take a Speech class so for my project I picked the Cuban Embargo. Boy did i learn a lot about Cuba. Of course, I had an interest in it since I already enjoy Cuban cigars. They was going to vote to lift some of the embargo restrictions before 9/11 happened. Then that happened and they actually made it tougher on Cuba. I probably still have my sources for that information, but its buried some where in my apartment. I have my ideas what would happen at first, but in the long run it will all balance out again. Just cuz its illegal in the US to have isom's, doesnt mean that the large share of what is being made for Europe and other places isnt still being bought by smokers in the US. That would be a cool static to see who is buying them all up but I think we already know that.

 

[alpi57]

A few years back I had to take a Speech class so for my project I picked the Cuban Embargo. Boy did i learn a lot about Cuba. Of course, I had an interest in it since I already enjoy Cuban cigars. They was going to vote to lift some of the embargo restrictions before 9/11 happened. Then that happened and they actually made it tougher on Cuba. I probably still have my sources for that information, but its buried some where in my apartment. I have my ideas what would happen at first, but in the long run it will all balance out again. Just cuz its illegal in the US to have isom's, doesnt mean that the large share of what is being made for Europe and other places isnt still being bought by smokers in the US. That would be a cool static to see who is buying them all up but I think we already know that.

Actually, the bill to lift the embargo has been brought to the senate floor four times and it has been defeated everytime. Can you guess who? Yes, the expat. lobby. President Clinton was very much in favor of lifting it and so are a lot of senators. They all know it is a silly game. Cuba other than a symbolic embarrasment does not represent any kind of threat to us.
It sure would be nice to travel there without all the hassles. LA to Havana in 3 and half hours. Think about it.....

 

[CoventryCat86]

The US will need the aid of the UK, Spain and South American countries to broker any kind of democratic government in Cuba. These countries have relations with Cuba already and I am sure would have something to say if we just waltzed in and took over.

Based onmy observations, people love Fidel as a symbol but hate the system and think that revolution has failed them. Many Cubans would tell you that before the fall of the Soviets it was like heaven and they lived well. But after is a different story. It seems the Canadians and Chinese have the best relationship with them. They are the only one who did not critisize them after the human rights conference at the UN last year, hence enjoying a favorite status.
I think embargo will be lifted and it will be a chaotic 5-10 years. It will be interesting though. History in the making.

I think you really have no idea what you're talking about. Anyone want to bet that the Trading With The Enemy Act will still be around in 2011?

 

[Infinity]

I think embargo will be lifted and it will be a chaotic 5-10 years. It will be interesting though. History in the making.

I think you really have no idea what you're talking about. Anyone want to bet that the Trading With The Enemy Act will still be around in 2011?

I'll bet a fiver of my best that it will no longer be applicable to Cuba

Brian

 

[ggiese]

The US will need the aid of the UK, Spain and South American countries to broker any kind of democratic government in Cuba. These countries have relations with Cuba already and I am sure would have something to say if we just waltzed in and took over.

Based onmy observations, people love Fidel as a symbol but hate the system and think that revolution has failed them. Many Cubans would tell you that before the fall of the Soviets it was like heaven and they lived well. But after is a different story. It seems the Canadians and Chinese have the best relationship with them. They are the only one who did not critisize them after the human rights conference at the UN last year, hence enjoying a favorite status.
I think embargo will be lifted and it will be a chaotic 5-10 years. It will be interesting though. History in the making.

It'll definitely be interesting to see which way this things heads. With Fidel Castro down there will certainly be a movement by the US to try and normalize relations with Cuba. I'm sure they'll offer up the embargo as one of the first bargaining chips in changing the current political climate. Certainly, Cuba is in need of dollars since the Soviet's left them high and dry...

Although, Chavez has his motivations to keep things just the way they are. He's been feeding Cuba and trying to keep her afloat. If Cuba's ties to Venezuela strengthen, no doubt the embargo will continue.


Very nice assessment, Ed...

 

[JimK]

The US will need the aid of the UK, Spain and South American countries to broker any kind of democratic government in Cuba. These countries have relations with Cuba already and I am sure would have something to say if we just waltzed in and took over.

Based onmy observations, people love Fidel as a symbol but hate the system and think that revolution has failed them. Many Cubans would tell you that before the fall of the Soviets it was like heaven and they lived well. But after is a different story. It seems the Canadians and Chinese have the best relationship with them. They are the only one who did not critisize them after the human rights conference at the UN last year, hence enjoying a favorite status.
I think embargo will be lifted and it will be a chaotic 5-10 years. It will be interesting though. History in the making.

I think you really have no idea what you're talking about. Anyone want to bet that the Trading With The Enemy Act will still be around in 2011?

I want a piece of this action too, Bill. No way will the embargo be lifted.

JK

 

[Matt R]

As long as there is political pressure in Southern Florida from the ex-pats, there will be an embargo. If it weren't for Jeb Bush's re-election, as well as his own, GW would have helped push the bill to lift the embargo. The ex-pats have less concern with what type of government is in place on the island, than they do about getting back their property(s).


As far as the Trading with the Enemy Act, it'll be around forever, as it doesn't just include Cuba. It has applied to other countries and I imagine with the way things are going, a few others will be added someday.