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What will happen to non-Cuban cigars...

comptalk

comptalk

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Joined
Sep 6, 2014
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So, a little birdie has been telling people in the know that the U.S. will, in time, easing up and then eventually removing the embargo against Cuban products.  When this happens, what will happen to cigars made in other countries now that they would have to compete with Cuba in the U.S.?  I am told the majority of the non-cuban cigars (aside from Davidoff) are made for the U.S. market.  Are non-cuban cigars even available en masse in other countries?  The international travelers to Asian and European countries tell me they can occasionally find a non-Cuban cigar aside from Davidoff.  However, the price is actually higher in most cases for non-Cuban cigars than Cuban cigars in most Asian and European countries.
 

Hmm, posted this in the general cigar forum and it ended up here.  Not sure how that happened.  Can a mod fix this please?  Thank you.
 
I would think they would take a little hit, but if you like Fuentes, you will still like and want Fuentes even with Cubans available. Plus, I would guess the cubans will be more expensive. This country will be flooded with many fake cubans. Good sources will still be a necessity. 
 
I think it opens the door to more opportunities, much like brewing, imagine the blending combinations available when you introduce the potential for Cuban tobacco in non-Cuban blends. As far as running them out of business, I doubt the supply of Cuban could keep up with the initial demand created by folks who now want to try what was once forbidden.  This will leave plenty of room for the NC producers.  Then as Cuban quality suffers when they try to meet the demand spike there will still be room.  Eventually it will level out and I would expect some consolidation of the non-Cuban brands long term.
 
I want Fuentes made with Cuban leaf. Stat.

Imagine an Opus-Cuban blend. Or imagine Fuente growing leaf in Cuba. Lots of incredible possibilities.
 
There would be pros and con's, of course.

One pro already mentioned would be a return to using Cuban tobacco in blends with nc.

A con would the inevitable taxes. :(
 
You think the "duty free" sites will just dry up and blow away? ;)
 
Juanote said:
You think the "duty free" sites will just dry up and blow away? ;)
Click to expand...
I hope not!
 
If you have located decent sources for cubans and are enjoying them in the US now, lifting the embargo will quite likely make prices on cubans up, and availability down. For several years, anyhow.
 
However, long term - once the mystique wears off, they are still a different taste, blend and not everyone will like them more than what they have been smoking.
 
Most cubans are somewhat on the mild side, and you have  many stronger blends out there that have catered to the US market, are well produced, well blended and that are good cigars. After an initial market disruption I expect a number of stronger blends to survive reasonably well.
 
Probably won't be too long before the tobacco is being blended with others.
 
While I don't have any specific knowledge of leaf markets, distribution and capabilities I also suspect that when Cuba enters the US market a lot of production will go into more popular items, and less popular cigars may be dropped.
 
That's a good point. With a new market suddenly opened for CCs, you'd have to expect demand and prices to jump along with duties and taxes. I'm not saying we'll be paying London prices but right now will be fondly remembered as the good ole days.
 
I wonder what will happen to the brands like Cohiba and LGC. The reason they exist in the US is because we don't recognize Cuban trademarks so the CC's would have to rebrand in the US market.
 
So here's the deal. Swedish Match and Habanos SA have all ready spoken in meetings about this. They have decided that they will raise the price to the US 20%. To give you and example, if you have a Siglo VI @ $26, it will first get a 20% increase, an excise tax of .41 cents per stick. $31.61 + state OTP tax (CA 28.95%) in CA  $9.15. so in CA you will pay at least $40.76.
 
The other issue that was mentioned, was fakes. If the embargo is lifted, you will see more counterfeits than ever.
 
We will get new blends, but Cuba will never be able to grow enough tobacco to supply a US open market. As it stands, close 1/3 of all cigars coming out of the island have Dominican, as well as other country's tobaccos as part of their filler for years now. It can only get worse.  
 
I wasn't aware that CCs already use another countries tobacco. One would think, as the largest country in the area, they would not have an issue in raising more tobacco..

Anyone know which CCs use non-Cuban tobacco in them?
 
Little birds?

We will see it has to end someday. Loving Padrons as much as I do, I'd be interested in Padron would do with Cuban tobacco.

Prices will go through the roof.
 
comptalk said:
I wasn't aware that CCs already use another countries tobacco. One would think, as the largest country in the area, they would not have an issue in raising more tobacco..

Anyone know which CCs use non-Cuban tobacco in them?
Click to expand...
 
I think a better question would be; "Are there any CC's that don't use Nic/DR tobacco in them"...??  Simple math will tell you that they just cannot grow enough tobacco on the island to take care of all the demand.  Add in the fact that huge crops have been wiped out in recent years due to storms, etc. and it's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that the folks from that "island south of Miami" have been blending in other tobacco....for years.
 
What's interesting is most of the duty free shops also sell Fuente, Padron, etc.  There will be tremendous initial demand for CC's, but I believe there will be room for most everyone at the table when the dust settles.  It will be crazy for a while; tons and tons of fakes, stupid high prices, etc.  Won't be fun living through that one.
 
Agreed.  The NC's will probably take a dip in sales for the first few years, then as the mystique wears off, people will go back to the cigars they love.  The only ones that would have to worry would be the Dominican cigars that are currently using CC names, namely General and Altadis (although I supposed one might be able to make some argument for Altadis).  LFD, Padron, AF, Illusione all makes great smokes that I just don't see me giving up even with the introduction of open CC market.
 
On a somewhat tangential point, I've heard that product from Cuba already makes its way to the other islands and that intermixing is already occurring. Comes from an industry insider, but take it with a grain of salt. 
 
The humanitaian in me, thinks Cuba should be able to do as it likes, to better it's country.  We import millions upon millions every year.
 
The Scrooge in me, thinks I like the Cigar trade, the way it is currently...
 
:sign:
 
jsm11 said:
The humanitaian in me, thinks Cuba should be able to do as it likes, to better it's country.  We import millions upon millions every year.
 
The Scrooge in me, thinks I like the Cigar trade, the way it is currently...
 
:sign:
Click to expand...
I prefer things the way they are, on cigars at least
 
I think the largest problem would be that the raw leaf from the farms will be sold at auction prices if there is a free market. That is to say if the brothers still control the country they would still control the crop prices with the farmers and the movement of the product. If it becomes a free market, the more famous farms (Prieto, Robaina) would have a lot of buyers lining up. Thus a shortage of quality leaf. Added, a lot of quick buck artists would try to buy up farms for mass production. Thus the quality suffering just to get more product out to appeal to the masses. Pretty packaging poor quality cigars (and overpriced) will pop up as they did in the mid-late 90's. John
 
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