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US to allow cuban cigars into the United States

CigSid

CigSid

Love this place...
Joined
Jan 25, 2014
Messages
6,243
Location
Southern California
Just read this story, this is just the beginning of something big...
 
Cigars part of U.S./Cuba deal
"Also as part of the deal, American travelers will be allowed to import $400 worth of Cuban goods, including up to $100 of tobacco products. The products will not be allowed to be resold."
 
Link
 
I can't decide quite how I feel about it yet.  This obviously opens the door for a plethora of possibilities, some good....some bad.  I think initially I am concerned that quality will decline and prices will increase, but only time will tell.
 
I'm certainly not cheering about it at the moment.
 
Brickhouse said:
I can't decide quite how I feel about it yet.  This obviously opens the door for a plethora of possibilities, some good....some bad.  I think initially I am concerned that quality will decline and prices will increase, but only time will tell.
 
I'm certainly not cheering about it at the moment.
Click to expand...
 
I agree. I am happy with the way things are right now, but I do like the idea of being able to visit Cuba legally for a change... :D
 
CigSid said:
 
I can't decide quite how I feel about it yet.  This obviously opens the door for a plethora of possibilities, some good....some bad.  I think initially I am concerned that quality will decline and prices will increase, but only time will tell.
 
I'm certainly not cheering about it at the moment.
Click to expand...
 
I agree. I am happy with the way things are right now, but I do like the idea of being able to visit Cuba legally for a change... :D
 
Click to expand...
 
Literally the one big positive I was thinking.  How cool would it be to get to visit some of the factories I've always wanted to see.  To get a pic in front of the Partagas building.  There are some up sides.
 
No good can come of this for the cigar smoker. The Commies can't handle the pressure. They're overextended as it is. Every swinging dick with a hundred bucks to burn and an itch to find out what all the hub bub is about is going to be buying ISOMs. The sorry thing is, most of them won't know even after smoking one. Pearls before swine if you ask me.

Doc
 
this is pretty awful for us from a herfer's standpoint
 
Everyone non smoker is going to want to try the forbidden fruit. Laws of supply and demand. Quality is going to decrease as profits can be made by just hawking lower quality cigars just cause it's from the ISOM.
 
the regulars like us who was already enjoying them prior to this historic news, does not benefit in this.
 
Seizure said:
this is pretty awful for us from a herfer's standpoint
 
Everyone non smoker is going to want to try the forbidden fruit. Laws of supply and demand. Quality is going to decrease as profits can be made by just hawking lower quality cigars just cause it's from the ISOM.
 
the regulars like us who was already enjoying them prior to this historic news, does not benefit in this.
Click to expand...
Hopefully they don't give in to that temptation and continue to market themselves as makers of high end quality cigars. I do expect prices to go up in that scenario though.
 
Once Habanos SA is completely overwhelmed by supply and demand, I pretty much expect to pay 5 times the amount for half the cigar.
 
These will be the good old days?
 
Geez, what a bunch of pessimists.  The Cubans have excellent tobacco.  They have had excellent tobacco for a long time and they will have excellent tobacco for a long time to come.  Cuban tobacco makes up a MASSIVE part of the international cigar business.  Depending on who you ask or what you read or where you travel, Cuba has something like 75% to 90% of the European cigar market.  Why?  Because their cigars are great. 
 
I don't see them jeopardizing their international status just because the American market is opening to a limited extent.  They aren't going to start rolling dog rockets just because they got an order from New York.  The limited American market, which is battling regulatory interference, is not as attractive as maintaining a controlling presence elsewhere.  While I agree that price changes are likely, I don't think the quality is as at risk as some may think.
 
Well, there's still quite a long road to travel yet on this before it gets to the point of embargo lifting.  But one has to think this small change is a sign of things to come.  But we will see where it goes. 
 
I'm hoping it will be hot and heavy for a few years, then interest dies down.  That's the best scenario in my mind.  Habanos aren't cheap, so I'm hoping not much changes from a supply/demand perspective.  Maybe it's my naive thinking.
 
The biggest issue is that the Cubans can't keep up with the current demand now, just wait until the floodgates get opened.  The dirty little not-so-secret is they've been buying tobacco for years and still can't keep up with the demand.  You need no more proof of this than the insane number of fakes out there.
 
Fakes will be the biggest problem going forward.  Demand will drive prices of the legit sticks through the roof, fakes will be more attractive than ever to produce and sell.  Long term it'll probably be OK but short term, it's going to be a mess.....
 
As cigar connoisseurs, we will have to be even more critical and diligent.  Know what you are buying, know who you're buying from, and look askance at any deal that seems too good to be true, because it probably is.
 
Devil Doc said:
No good can come of this for the cigar smoker. The Commies can't handle the pressure. They're overextended as it is. Every swinging dick with a hundred bucks to burn and an itch to find out what all the hub bub is about is going to be buying ISOMs. The sorry thing is, most of them won't know even after smoking one. Pearls before swine if you ask me.

Doc
Click to expand...
 
Yes, considering that Cuba produces less than 100 million cigars a year for the whole world, and the US imports over 300 million cigars a year, not calculating cuban cigars in the amount, this is a recipe for disaster....

BlindedByScience said:
The biggest issue is that the Cubans can't keep up with the current demand now, just wait until the floodgates get opened.  The dirty little not-so-secret is they've been buying tobacco for years and still can't keep up with the demand.  You need no more proof of this than the insane number of fakes out there.
 
Fakes will be the biggest problem going forward.  Demand will drive prices of the legit sticks through the roof, fakes will be more attractive than ever to produce and sell.  Long term it'll probably be OK but short term, it's going to be a mess.....
 
As cigar connoisseurs, we will have to be even more critical and diligent.  Know what you are buying, know who you're buying from, and look askance at any deal that seems too good to be true, because it probably is.
Click to expand...
 
Great advice Tom, and buy, buy, buy... :D
 
Many people don't know what a good cigar tastes like as it is.  As Doc said.  But they will probably drive the price higher and while there are a billion people in China, for instance, those who can afford cigars from their comrades in Cuba are far more limited than in the US, so the demand will be there opening up a giant market in the US.  I wonder what will happen to the high end Dominican, Honduran and Nicaraguan cigar prices as Cubans are introduced into the market. 
 
My only point of reference is the cigar boom of the 90's.  There were many dog rockets produced, marketed as premium cigars and sold at relatively high prices.  I can only assume the same may happen with this "boom", then it will slowly die down and moderate itself.  Sometimes during the boom it was literally hard to find any Fuente, not to mention one of the special ones, but then there weren't all that many of them in the early days.
 
I would think if anybody who is a bit more in the know going to buy, he should do it with stock that was already in the shops, or go back a year or more to lessen the risk of getting dowels.
 
Bill, you took the words out of my mouth as Cramer says "BUY,BUY,BUY! I'm glad I've been buying all along. I was going to slow it down in the new year but now won't. Don't get me wrong this is not happening anytime soon but it's a start to something bigger to come. No doubt that prices will increase especially with our government imposing taxes when CC's are available to us and the fact is that production will suffer. Cuba could only produce so many cigars a year. Until they expand the farms it will take at least 5 years for them to catch up. Yes, every Tom, Dick and Harry is going to want a CC and regular cigar smokers that don't smoke them will want to try them as well. 
 
So when the embargo is lifted, regular CC smokers will be looking for embargoed era cigars for sure IMO and I know that I surely would.
 
I would like to know what the Padrons and Fuentes think of this news. I posted this article back in May about them preparing for when the embargo is lifted and still a very good read.
 
http://tbo.com/news/politics/cigar-companies-plan-for-when-trade-embargo-with-cuba-ends-and-cuban-tobacco-floods-us-market-20140511/
 
For now this doesn't seem too relevant for us. This will only affect people going to Cuba and bringing cigars back. They still haven't loosened the travel restrictions to the point that leisure trips are allowed. I think we're still a ways off from Holts selling COROs.
 
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