Jay's "Seven Days" Pass

[tomthirtysix]

Someone correct me if my numbers are wrong, but iirc: 1000 jars x 19 cigars per jar (19000) vs 666 boxes of 13 + 1300 boxes of 10 + "the balance of the boxes sold to the top 130 retailers (21658 + whatever the other 130 retailers got)

After doing some more looking around for the exact numbers for The Face, it seems the 21658 number includes the extras sent out to the other 130 retailers. Totals looks like 19k vs 21k, which is as good as even.

 

[Yeahthatsme]

"Rarity" has always been judged differently by different hosts. I often looked at it based on the following qualifications:

Level 1: Currently in Production Year Round
Level 2: On a Production/ Release Schedule
Level 3: Out of Circulation
3a. Production Size
3b. Age

The only thing I would add to that list, personally, is demand, otherwise it's spot on.






As far as the OR Black vs The Face, the main difference is age, and I don't really see that as a make or break variance in this case. That said, the puts and takes all look fine.

I'm a bit hesitant to have you ship it out today(Wednesday) as it would end up sitting in a warehouse all of Sunday if delivery gets delayed at all. Any other opinions on that?

 

[BigJake6904]

As far as the OR Black vs The Face, the main difference is age, and I don't really see that as a make or break variance in this case. That said, the puts and takes all look fine.

I'm a bit hesitant to have you ship it out today(Wednesday) as it would end up sitting in a warehouse all of Sunday if delivery gets delayed at all. Any other opinions on that?

Pugman's in/ at/ around the Dallas area right? If so....Houston to Dallas should be a 2 day shipment, 3 max.

The package is worth more than the risk though. I suppose it just depends how fast you want this to move along.

 

[BigJake6904]

The only thing I would add to that list, personally, is demand, otherwise it's spot on.

The reason I never consider "demand" is that demand is also subjective to taste...which is why I personally don't use it. One's man's treasure is another man's trash....though, that doesn't (or shouldn't) affect the actual value cigar.

 

[Audi_kraut]

I have no issues holding onto it for a bit longer. As stated the package is worth more than the risk and as it is I'd be shipping it two day air. Plus it would give me some time to patch up the box a bit. There are some gnarly gashes on two sides and the bottom already.

 

[{tpc}]

Gonna toss in my guess for the lock combo. 1 - 4 - 3. lol

 

[enerjay]

Well good to see you boys are all playing well. Lost one of the good guys the other day and a FOUR Star gave his blessings to fire back, nice to have some going the other way for a change.

Sad to see MEN (boys) take it in there bunks, Its hard to go and disconnect the units and dismantle and remove after some thing like that.

Good to see healthy discussion over P/T thats what its all about. Personal the trade looked good to me as well.

Tell you wife and kids you love them tonight, it will mean more to them that you know.

 

[drunkfish3]

My guess 1-1-3

 

[Yeahthatsme]

As far as the OR Black vs The Face, the main difference is age, and I don't really see that as a make or break variance in this case. That said, the puts and takes all look fine.

I'm a bit hesitant to have you ship it out today(Wednesday) as it would end up sitting in a warehouse all of Sunday if delivery gets delayed at all. Any other opinions on that?

Pugman's in/ at/ around the Dallas area right? If so....Houston to Dallas should be a 2 day shipment, 3 max.

The package is worth more than the risk though. I suppose it just depends how fast you want this to move along.

I'd rather it go a little slower, at least in the southern leg, than risk damaging Jay's stock. Lets go ahead and wait until Monday.

Well good to see you boys are all playing well. Lost one of the good guys the other day and a FOUR Star gave his blessings to fire back, nice to have some going the other way for a change.

Sad to see MEN (boys) take it in there bunks, Its hard to go and disconnect the units and dismantle and remove after some thing like that.

Good to see healthy discussion over P/T thats what its all about. Personal the trade looked good to me as well.

Tell you wife and kids you love them tonight, it will mean more to them that you know.

That's terrible to hear, Jay. Stay safe out there.

 

[Blue Dragon]

But how many Blacks are out there in circulation? being that the face are only 9months old they are much easier to come by. Again JMO.

Rarity should be based on production until a certain point where years become a factor. I'd say that's probably when you get past the 8-10yr. marker, after production of the cigar has ceased.

That's like someone saying Opus are one of the rarest cigars because they aren't at their B&M and they can't get them, even though they are on a constant, quarterly production and are widely available. You can't make it subjective to a sample of the population.

In just a couple years, the Face will be just like the Frank, and Neither the Black or the Face you can still buy in stores. Your perception of circulation is probably based off the multiple Forums B/S/T's...which is a terrible way to judge rarity. If it's different, please let me know, I'm legitimately interested.

Sorry Jake; I guess I disagree. The value of a cigar is based on worth today, and not projecting what it may be worth tomorrow. It is more like saying an OR Anjeo Shark is *just as* valuable as an OR Anejo #60. .. Come on now. Would anyone have given it a second thought if it was taking the Face and putting the OR Tat Black Jar? Um, no.. So why the question? Because today the OR Tat Black is harder to find than the Face, it is still sought after, and some would say that the blend from the OR Tat Blacks are a slightly different blend than they are today. Point is, Value for Value today, not for what it was yesterday or might be tomorrow.

Just my $.02.

*edited due to brain fart .. now stating what I intended.

 

[BigJake6904]

But how many Blacks are out there in circulation? being that the face are only 9months old they are much easier to come by. Again JMO.

Rarity should be based on production until a certain point where years become a factor. I'd say that's probably when you get past the 8-10yr. marker, after production of the cigar has ceased.

That's like someone saying Opus are one of the rarest cigars because they aren't at their B&M and they can't get them, even though they are on a constant, quarterly production and are widely available. You can't make it subjective to a sample of the population.

In just a couple years, the Face will be just like the Frank, and Neither the Black or the Face you can still buy in stores. Your perception of circulation is probably based off the multiple Forums B/S/T's...which is a terrible way to judge rarity. If it's different, please let me know, I'm legitimately interested.

Sorry Jake; I guess I disagree. The value of a cigar is based on worth today, and not projecting what it may be worth tomorrow. It is more like saying an OR Anjeo Shark is *just as* valuable as an OR Anejo #60. .. Come on now. Would anyone have given it a second thought if it was taking the Face and putting the OR Tat Black Jar? Um, no.. So why the question? Because today the OR Tat Black is harder to find than the Face, it is still sought after, and some would say that the blend from the OR Tat Blacks are a slightly different blend than they are today. Point is, Value for Value today, not for what it was yesterday or might be tomorrow.

Just my $.02.

*edited due to brain fart .. now stating what I intended.

An OR Anejo shark is significantly older than an OR Anejo 60....like almost 10 years (though not quite). Thus where age becomes a factor, like I noted in my posts above.

Not to mention...I find it hard to give the "OR" title to the Anejo 60...the blend is just the same as all the other Anejo's, they simply introduced a new size. A more likely comparison to your argument would be a Tat Black Jar Release vs. a Tat Black Tubo. Thus why your comparison isn't close to the one we have here.

Black 2008 vs Face 2010....not a huge age gap. Value for Value today....is still $13 for $13.

 

[thechenman]

Combo Guess: 7-1-4

 

[Wolfie]

The good - I made an offer on property last November. The unthinkable has happened, and all parties involved (seller had two mortgages, and this was a short sale offer) are finally on the same page. I was notified mere minutes ago that everything is in order, documents are ready, and I sign at 4. I am heading out in a moment to get a cashier's check cut for the remainder of my escrow deposit.

The bad - The address currently listed with the pass will be no good as of the last day of this month. I have been paying month-to-month, and I don't plan to give any more money to the property management company.

The ugly - After only 8 years, the battery on my bike is dead.


New address as of (likely) Monday:

Anthony Wolf
3892 Delmont AVE
Oakland, CA. 94605
(360) 440-3652

My combo guess - 169

 

[Blue Dragon]

But how many Blacks are out there in circulation? being that the face are only 9months old they are much easier to come by. Again JMO.

Rarity should be based on production until a certain point where years become a factor. I'd say that's probably when you get past the 8-10yr. marker, after production of the cigar has ceased.

That's like someone saying Opus are one of the rarest cigars because they aren't at their B&M and they can't get them, even though they are on a constant, quarterly production and are widely available. You can't make it subjective to a sample of the population.

In just a couple years, the Face will be just like the Frank, and Neither the Black or the Face you can still buy in stores. Your perception of circulation is probably based off the multiple Forums B/S/T's...which is a terrible way to judge rarity. If it's different, please let me know, I'm legitimately interested.

Sorry Jake; I guess I disagree. The value of a cigar is based on worth today, and not projecting what it may be worth tomorrow. It is more like saying an OR Anjeo Shark is *just as* valuable as an OR Anejo #60. .. Come on now. Would anyone have given it a second thought if it was taking the Face and putting the OR Tat Black Jar? Um, no.. So why the question? Because today the OR Tat Black is harder to find than the Face, it is still sought after, and some would say that the blend from the OR Tat Blacks are a slightly different blend than they are today. Point is, Value for Value today, not for what it was yesterday or might be tomorrow.

Just my $.02.

*edited due to brain fart .. now stating what I intended.

An OR Anejo shark is significantly older than an OR Anejo 60....like almost 10 years (though not quite). Thus where age becomes a factor, like I noted in my posts above.

Not to mention...I find it hard to give the "OR" title to the Anejo 60...the blend is just the same as all the other Anejo's, they simply introduced a new size. A more likely comparison to your argument would be a Tat Black Jar Release vs. a Tat Black Tubo. Thus why your comparison isn't close to the one we have here.

Black 2008 vs Face 2010....not a huge age gap. Value for Value today....is still $13 for $13.

If they are both valued at $13, then I'm not sure why it was brought up. I just got stuck on the "In just a couple years," piece of that logic. .. Besides, Jay already said he was good with it. And in all honesty, he is dealing with way bigger fish to fry than a couple bucks or a rare vs. kinda rarer stick... And if I'm in a pass I tend to lean the completely opposite direction; more on the side of generosity than being questionable. But honestly, I haven't followed cigar values in a while .. So feel free to call me out if I screw up. :thumbs:

 

[BigJake6904]

If they are both valued at $13, then I'm not sure why it was brought up. I just got stuck on the "In just a couple years," piece of that logic. .. Besides, Jay already said he was good with it. And in all honesty, he is dealing with way bigger fish to fry than a couple bucks or a rare vs. kinda rarer stick... And if I'm in a pass I tend to lean the completely opposite direction; more on the side of generosity than being questionable. But honestly, I haven't followed cigar values in a while .. So feel free to call me out if I screw up. :thumbs:

It never really should have been.

Let's get the pass rollin'!

Nice job for your first pass Audi! :thumbs:

 

[Yeahthatsme]

If they are both valued at $13, then I'm not sure why it was brought up. I just got stuck on the "In just a couple years," piece of that logic. .. Besides, Jay already said he was good with it. And in all honesty, he is dealing with way bigger fish to fry than a couple bucks or a rare vs. kinda rarer stick... And if I'm in a pass I tend to lean the completely opposite direction; more on the side of generosity than being questionable. But honestly, I haven't followed cigar values in a while .. So feel free to call me out if I screw up. :thumbs:

It never really should have been.

Let's get the pass rollin'!

Nice job for your first pass Audi! :thumbs:

I'd rather have it discussed and settled, especially since most of my experience is in delaying passes, not running them.



Please everyone, feel free to post any questions or concerns you have with a trade.

 

[tomthirtysix]

If they are both valued at $13, then I'm not sure why it was brought up. I just got stuck on the "In just a couple years," piece of that logic. .. Besides, Jay already said he was good with it. And in all honesty, he is dealing with way bigger fish to fry than a couple bucks or a rare vs. kinda rarer stick... And if I'm in a pass I tend to lean the completely opposite direction; more on the side of generosity than being questionable. But honestly, I haven't followed cigar values in a while .. So feel free to call me out if I screw up. :thumbs:

It never really should have been.

Let's get the pass rollin'!

Nice job for your first pass Audi! :thumbs:

Sorry, Jake. Forgot you worked at a shop. What was I thinking questioning you?

 

[Audi_kraut]

If they are both valued at $13, then I'm not sure why it was brought up. I just got stuck on the "In just a couple years," piece of that logic. .. Besides, Jay already said he was good with it. And in all honesty, he is dealing with way bigger fish to fry than a couple bucks or a rare vs. kinda rarer stick... And if I'm in a pass I tend to lean the completely opposite direction; more on the side of generosity than being questionable. But honestly, I haven't followed cigar values in a while .. So feel free to call me out if I screw up. :thumbs:

This statement is humorous to me because it was actually discussed when Jake and I met (I mentioned his P/T's and the value of his Puts). It is a lesson that you have reinforced and has been duly noted for future passes. Furthermore, as I arm myself with more choice sticks I hope to avoid this problem. I appreciate this opportunity, I know I still have quite a bit to learn about this community, its inner workings and the formalities of a pass. But with Jake leading the way, how can I go wrong :laugh:

Seriously though, thank you to everyone for all of the great advice and especially to Jake. In the few times I have met with him, he has taught me more about CP, the industry, and cigars than I could imagine. :thumbs: The pass will be shipped Monday morning and I will post up the tracking number as soon as I get it. I have also been PMing Pugman with regards to the delay in shipping so he knows when to expect it.



ps. I am Happy to report that after three months on CP, my desktop humidor that has sufficed for well over five years if now filled to the brim. Full of great sticks that I'm hesitant to smoke until I have the time to fully enjoy what they have to offer. Thus the search is now on for a cabinet...

 

[ironpeddler]

When I looked at Michael's P/Ts, that one stuck out to me too. If we shoot from the hip sort of say...quite a few of the members here were clammering for the Tat Blacks (Jar release) when they first came out and how many ISO were in the B/S/T Forum looking for them for quite some time afterwards? Add in the discussions in previous Passes I was in and watched play out in others here regarding this cigar only strengthened my belief it was more valuable. I guess that set of events over a period of time stuck in my mind to make me think the Tat Black was worth more.

Then Jake made his point and it totally made sense once I read it in print. The production numbers were pretty close and the price was dead on. Rarity? Pete Johnson has watered down that aspect of some of his "Limited Releases" and once again you all showed that as factual.

While we pride ourselves in knowing cigars and can pretty much identify which cigar is more valuable than another quite quickly, the knowledge OUTSIDE that prevailing/immediate thought pattern is what counts, as it played out here...that's the lesson taken out of most P/Ts.

Great job guys...:thumbs:...and great first Pass Mr. Tan, a big congrats to you!

 

[Charley]

The good - I made an offer on property last November. The unthinkable has happened, and all parties involved (seller had two mortgages, and this was a short sale offer) are finally on the same page. I was notified mere minutes ago that everything is in order, documents are ready, and I sign at 4. I am heading out in a moment to get a cashier's check cut for the remainder of my escrow deposit.

The bad - The address currently listed with the pass will be no good as of the last day of this month. I have been paying month-to-month, and I don't plan to give any more money to the property management company.

The ugly - After only 8 years, the battery on my bike is dead.


New address as of (likely) Monday:

Anthony Wolf
3892 Delmont AVE
Oakland, CA. 94605
(360) 440-3652

My combo guess - 169

Contrats on the new house Anthony!


Sorry about your bike though...


.