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How much will the market drop tomorrow?

Does it really matter how much it drops?

How much worse can it get. Pull all your money out and put it in your piggy bank for a while.. At least you can't lose it that way.



Very true you money will be there, but what will it be worth? I am just a dumbass fireman, but it seems to me that the real problem will be in the coming weeks if nothing (ie "bail-out") happens. Even after the first one failed the market still expects the government to do "something". If nothing happens then its panic mode, banks will be even less likely to extend lines of credit. Let's not forget that everything runs on credit, always has too for that matter.

Tightening lines of credit will lead to a pay as you go, which might not sound bad, but think of a car dealership. They might have 200 new cars on the lot, but how many do they own? A small fraction, the rest are there on "credit". Imagine only having 10 cars to choose from and thats if you can pay cash.

I hear a lot of people talking about helping out "main street" and I am sure that some of you got the emails from the poor gent who flunked basic math, but whats the common man's hold up. We have representatives saying that their voters don't want large pay outs to corperate C.E.O.'s and in truth I would prefer the did not get their golden parachutes. That being said, if the bail out is for 700 Billion dollars and even if C.E.O. buy outs total 1 billion dollars, then your talking about less than 0.2%. That would be the same as asking some one with 10 dollars for 0.02$.

There is plenty of blame to go around, this has been building for a long time. The fact of the matter is that you and I (well maybe not you and certainly not me ;) ) are just as much to blame as the CEO's and politicians. People wanted/demanded low interest, zero percent down loans and bought homes on spec. Some of those homes had inflated values and when the price dropped, people just walked away. It's not everyone, but we all in some small part looked the other.

Well I guess I should stop ranting. There may well be some factual errors in the above, but I am just an average guy trying to make sense of it all. Thanks for listening.

Brandon
 
Where'd that $700-billion figure come from?

“It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”

Linky - thanks Moki!

Oh yea..not politics!

:D
Who told you that IF there is no bail out, we are in big trouble? ??? ???

Brian
 
I dont about any of you guys but I have been picking up stock in the past 2 weeks.
And I have already quadrupled my initial investment.
Not too shabby in this Bearish market!
Now Ill play the waiting game and see if I can find me some property to live in.
 
Where'd that $700-billion figure come from?

“It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”

Linky - thanks Moki!

Oh yea..not politics!

:D
Who told you that IF there is no bail out, we are in big trouble? ??? ???

Brian

This is what I want to know. What would really happen if there was no bailout? I mean there will certainly be a plan of some sort that eventually makes it through. But hypothetically speaking, what would really happen if there weren't?
 
...and the market is back up 483 points! My favorite part of all of this?

Where'd that $700-billion bailout figure come from?

“It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”

Well, that inspires confidence. They just made up a big number. heh.

link: http://www.forbes.com/businessinthebeltway...923bailout.html

Oh, and Maxine Waters should be out of a job:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs
 
This is what I want to know. What would really happen if there was no bailout? I mean there will certainly be a plan of some sort that eventually makes it through. But hypothetically speaking, what would really happen if there weren't?

I really do not think we will know for sure the full ramifications until some years has passed and all the data is gathered.
I would rather do nothing than something harsh by over-reacting.
 
This is what I want to know. What would really happen if there was no bailout? I mean there will certainly be a plan of some sort that eventually makes it through. But hypothetically speaking, what would really happen if there weren't?

No one can say for sure. My main concern is continued severe contraction in credit markets...lenders not lending to individuals and businesses small and large, which could lead to a deep and protracted recession the likes of which no one since my grandparents has seen. Maybe it ends up being the event/timeframe in which the mantle of "superpower" gets handed to China.

Those are the risks, as I see them. In the be all and end all, if left alone, things will work themselves out...they always do...but the potential for pain in letting them run their course is pretty severe.

I don't like government. I think it tends to do things poorly and inefficiently. In general, the legislation that has been proposed is repugnant to me. But I think something has to be done.

JMO
 
This is what I want to know. What would really happen if there was no bailout? I mean there will certainly be a plan of some sort that eventually makes it through. But hypothetically speaking, what would really happen if there weren't?

Well, reasoning from first principles: the bad assets are worth whatever you can get for them, in this case 20 to 30 cents on the dollar. Liabilities, unfortunately, do not shrink at the same time. So we have some bankruptcies on the way, whether they come sooner or later.

As a matter of accounting it's easy to get the bad assets off one's balance sheet permanently. You just declare them to be worth zero and *poof* they're off your balance sheet. The problem with the current situation is that companies can play games to put of the day of reckoning, when the assets are priced down, not indefinitely but certainly over the short term. So investors and bankers are going to be very reluctant to give up cash. There might be a nasty surprise hidden in the books.

The $700B would allow the companies to recapitalize, at the cost of diluting or wiping out existing shareholders entirely, under arduous terms - but capital would still be available. This creates a ceiling, and it would help drive a market for private capital under that ceiling. I think that the plan was unpalatable because it's seen as a lifeline, given out gratis, where it should be presented as the financial equivalent of a trip to see Vito the Loan Shark, with Henry Paulson and Ben Bernancke playing the part of Vito.

That analogy is also useful in figuring out why it met with such harsh opposition from legislators. It would require that the government go through the dirty business of wiping out shareholders and closing down companies. It would screw well-heeled big-business contributors. It violates both right ideology - the government shouldn't/can't/isn't trusted to meddle with the market - and left ideology - it saves big companies, and the people get screwed. Take your pick.

EDIT: rewritten for clarity
 
The reason that I think we're headed down the second path is that it has become popular to believe in the benefits, not the drawbacks, of a free market. The advantage is that you can make a lot of money. The disadvantage is that you can get wiped out.

Capitalism eats its own. My concern is not for Lehman Bros. or anyone who engaged in the risky speculation (and got rich on it), but rather just to keep the credit flowing. I think that can be done while still letting some of these banks fail.
 
Very true. Our money is essentially Fiat money. It is actually pretty scary when you delve further into this and realize that most other nations around the world have been accumulating and hoarding gold reserves for years, and the U.S. has been selling theirs off. The true value in our nations currency is more or less a

Oy vey - all money is fiat money, and even gold's value is largely arbitrary (in that the industrial value of gold is propped up by its use as an internal reserve form of money). Fully-backed physical convertibility went away in the 1700's; statutory reserve requirements as a fraction of currency in the 20th century, and financial convertibility (pegs between the unit of currency and the unit of gold) in 1971, with the collapse of
Bretton Woods.

Gold's actually cheaper today than in 1971, once you factor in inflation. It's primarily an "internal reserve" against loans made by the central bank itself.
 
The reason that I think we're headed down the second path is that it has become popular to believe in the benefits, not the drawbacks, of a free market. The advantage is that you can make a lot of money. The disadvantage is that you can get wiped out.

Capitalism eats its own. My concern is not for Lehman Bros. or anyone who engaged in the risky speculation (and got rich on it), but rather just to keep the credit flowing. I think that can be done while still letting some of these banks fail.
The problem is that unfortunately, THEY are not going to see it that way.

This may take until the next generation to put right...what a shame!

Brian
 
I've been convinced that the government has to come in and provide some stability to this situation. I can't even begin to say that I'm smart enough to follow all of this, but what do our resident CP minds think of this plan:

I. INSURANCE

a. Insure the subprime bonds/mortgages with an underlying FHA-type insurance.
Government-insured and backed loans would have an instant market all over the
world, creating immediate and needed liquidity.

b. In order for a company to accept the government-backed insurance, they must do two
things:
1. Rewrite any mortgage that is more than three months delinquent to a
6% fixed-rate mortgage.
a. Roll all back payments with no late fees or legal costs into the
balance. This brings homeowners current and allows them a
chance to keep their homes.

b. Cancel all prepayment penalties to encourage refinancing or
the sale of the property to pay off the bad loan. In the event of
foreclosure or short sale, the borrower will not be held liable
for any deficit balance. FHA does this now, and that
encourages mortgage companies to go the extra mile while
working with the borrower—again limiting foreclosures and
ruined lives.
2. Cancel ALL golden parachutes of EXISTING and FUTURE CEOs and
executive team members as long as the company holds these
government-insured bonds/mortgages. This keeps underperforming
executives from being paid when they don’t do their jobs.

c. This backstop will cost less than $50 billion—a small fraction of the current proposal.
II. MARK TO MARKET
a. Remove mark to market accounting rules for two years on only subprime Tier III
bonds/mortgages. This keeps companies from being forced to artificially mark down
bonds/mortgages below the value of the underlying mortgages and real estate.

b. This move creates patience in the market and has an immediate stabilizing effect on
failing and ailing banks—and it costs the taxpayer nothing.
III. CAPITAL GAINS TAX
a. Remove the capital gains tax completely. Investors will flood the real estate and stock
market in search of tax-free profits, creating tremendous—and immediate—liquidity in
the markets. Again, this costs the taxpayer nothing.

b. This move will be seen as a lightning rod politically because many will say it is helping
the rich. The truth is the rich will benefit, but it will be their money that stimulates the
economy. This will enable all Americans to have more stable jobs and retirement
investments that go up instead of down.
Would this do a better job than what's been proposed? I know it's the plan put out by folks who are right of center, but at this point I don't care who comes up with a plan as long as it's a good one. I'm really NOT trying to inject politics into this, I'm just trying to get some information. I trust that I can get a fair analysis of this stuff that is not infected with political BS here and that's what I'm looking for.
 
Alan, we don't know what is going on and herein lies the problem.

Our lives are controlled by the media...what we see and what we hear.

I always think in terms of; don't believe or disbelieve everything you see and hear but rather, FEEL what resonates with you.

This does not FEEL good to me!

I am a business man. In business there is risk/reward. If I look after my business, provide good services, then I am entitled to the reward.
Conversely, if I act irresponsibly, mismanage my business, then I must suffer the consequences.

I posted a statement above and I'll say it again...who told us that we are going to be in trouble with no bailout. Look at the players.

On a side note, I do think there will be a bailout. It would be nice if it is aimed at helping the average American and not the companies who mismanaged their businesses.
Somehow, I don't see that happening.

Brian
 
Alan, we don't know what is going on and herein lies the problem.

Our lives are controlled by the media...what we see and what we hear.

I always think in terms of; don't believe or disbelieve everything you see and hear but rather, FEEL what resonates with you.

This does not FEEL good to me!

I am a business man. In business there is risk/reward. If I look after my business, provide good services, then I am entitled to the reward.
Conversely, if I act irresponsibly, mismanage my business, then I must suffer the consequences.

I posted a statement above and I'll say it again...who told us that we are going to be in trouble with no bailout. Look at the players.

On a side note, I do think there will be a bailout. It would be nice if it is aimed at helping the average American and not the companies who mismanaged their businesses.
Somehow, I don't see that happening.

Brian


I totally agree, but on the whole, what can you do to help out the average American? A tax break so they/we can spend the money on something we probably shouldn't. Again, I am no expert, or even a business man for that matter. I am just a guy trying to make sense of it all.

Brandon
 
The problem isn't the mortgages, it's that they've been grouped together, split up and sold as bonds. Then you have a whole quantity of bets called credit default swaps, which "insure" against the bond failing (wholly or partly), and since you don't have to own the bond itself to take out insurance on it, the amount of credit default swaps actually exceeds the amount of bonds. You have the phenomenon of leverage, where a bank has very little owner's equity in comparison to its money owed (deposits) and money owed it (loans), and so a small downturn wipes out the owners, and i-banks and funds have even less. Finally, you have what's called "counterparty risk", which is the risk that a transaction between two banks will go sour before it's completely fulfilled - a lot of the intervention to date has been done to reduce counterparty risk.

If each company was essentially self-contained, like a software company, then it would be a lot like the tech boom. And the individual mortgages are like the tech boom. The problem is in the interconnectedness of financial institutions, the sheer volume of leverage used (and therefore sensitivity to market downturns - high upside means extra-high downside), and the fact that we're not nearly at real estate bottom yet.
 
The problem isn't the mortgages, it's that they've been grouped together, split up and sold as bonds. Then you have a whole quantity of bets called credit default swaps, which "insure" against the bond failing (wholly or partly), and since you don't have to own the bond itself to take out insurance on it, the amount of credit default swaps actually exceeds the amount of bonds. You have the phenomenon of leverage, where a bank has very little owner's equity in comparison to its money owed (deposits) and money owed it (loans), and so a small downturn wipes out the owners, and i-banks and funds have even less. Finally, you have what's called "counterparty risk", which is the risk that a transaction between two banks will go sour before it's completely fulfilled - a lot of the intervention to date has been done to reduce counterparty risk.

If each company was essentially self-contained, like a software company, then it would be a lot like the tech boom. And the individual mortgages are like the tech boom. The problem is in the interconnectedness of financial institutions, the sheer volume of leverage used (and therefore sensitivity to market downturns - high upside means extra-high downside), and the fact that we're not nearly at real estate bottom yet.
In your opinion (which I respect a great deal seeing as how you're much more educated on this than I am) would the plan outlined above make a difference? Would it simply be a case of "at least they're doing something" adding confidence to the markets and opening up the credit crunch? Would it make a REAL difference in fixing the problem? Is there ANYTHING that can be done to fix this or is it all just window dressing to try to calm irrational people/markets?

I know I only know what I'm being told, and frankly, I'm not nearly educated enough on the subject to form a truly individual objective opinion, but I'm trying my best. :)

The reason I'm convinced that something has to be done is that it sounds like the pain of this is going to be felt by the guilty (as it should be) AND by those that did not take out mortgages they couldn't afford, those that have not lived well beyond their means, and those that are doing the right things. I don't think that's right.
 
a. Insure the subprime bonds/mortgages with an underlying FHA-type insurance.
Government-insured and backed loans would have an instant market all over the
world, creating immediate and needed liquidity.

That's essentially the role of credit default swaps, but no one knows whether the insurers will be able to weather the storm. If you're putting the government in the business of guaranteeing CDS's, that's an imposition of liability without a backing asset or potential upside. In other words, it's a massive giveaway.

1. Rewrite any mortgage that is more than three months delinquent to a
6% fixed-rate mortgage.

My Dad and I were talking about this last night - forcing refinances to stabilize the housing market. There are technical and moral problems here
1) Amortization of a mortgage can be 20, 25, 30 years- but mortgages themselves are issued for no longer than 5 years. For obvious reasons, no bank is going to cut a mortgage for more than the value of the house at renewal time. Also, I don't expect the real estate market to recover quickly, for historical reasons (rental to property value ratio)
2) Foreclosures and penalties are priced into the rates you, as a good borrower, pay. Credit card companies lose money on customers that don't carry a balance; they make all their profits and more on customers that do. Therefore, this would jack up everyone's interest rates in order to keep the banks and bondholders solvent.
3) Finally, the government can't be seen as saving bad actors and rescuing people from their own decisions. That's electoral poison - it makes Willie Horton look mild by comparison.

That said, I recall seeing a potential solution that has people surrendering their severely underwater homes in return for a long-term lease, under the same terms (same payment size) and the right of first refusal on sale. This has the advantage of maintaining cash flow for the banks and reducing immediate dislocation, although it doesn't address the unbalanced rent to property value ratio issue.

a. Remove mark to market accounting rules for two years on only subprime Tier III
bonds/mortgages. This keeps companies from being forced to artificially mark down
bonds/mortgages below the value of the underlying mortgages and real estate.

I'm rewriting my answer to this b/c it doesn't really fit.

When the mortgages were packaged up and sold as bonds (securitization), the issuers split them in terms of risk as well as into quantities. They did this using the principle of subordination (the first tranche gets paid off entirely, then the second, then the third, and so on) and also through the use of credit default swaps, to upgrade/insure subordinate tranches. So it's difficult to identify which are and aren't vulnerable, complicated by the CDS mess described above.

Making an entire class of securities illiquid (by banning mark to market) also has issues in that they still count as assets, but will have arbitrary value until such time that the rule comes back into effect. This will dissuade investors and lenders from re-entering the market, because they won't know the real value of their counterparties. The entire corporate paper market is presently at a standstill for this reason.

Remove the capital gains tax completely. Investors will flood the real estate and stock
market in search of tax-free profits, creating tremendous—and immediate—liquidity in
the markets. Again, this costs the taxpayer nothing.

Net capital gains tax revenue is projected to go about $120B. Not quite cost-free. Likewise, the underlying assumption is that this exceeds the risk premium demanded by investors, but I don't see any evidence that this is so. Japan experimented with this in the 90's, as well as with negative interest rates - and it still failed to push investment money into the market.

I do agree with the premise, though, that we need an infusion of new capital to allow banks and other FIs to write off their losses and move on without bankrupting themselves. I don't think that it's going to come from private domestic sources, not least because domestic sources are tapped-out. It's likely not going to come from overseas, or at least not any time soon; any foreign institution, public or private, with major USD holdings since Jan 06 got murdered when the USD depreciated. Where then is the money going to come from?
 
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