How much will the market drop tomorrow?

[grateful1]

...and what might be a good buy when it does?


Lehman talks resume, Barclays pulls out

 

[interscape]

I have a coworker who swears he makes money interpeting the nekkei then trading accordingly each morning. He also buttons his polo to the top button and sports a full on man camel toe so he may have insight beyond normal man... Good luck thought,,,

 

[Rebel Herfer]

It depends upon your market interests; what is good for bonds is not always good for stocks.
This week is poised to be one of the most significant weeks in United States economic history. Keynesian economics has been shown to be lacking in both foresight and power, or it has at exposed the incompetence of some very "smart" people. My guess is by weeks end someone will be going to the poorhouse (Bankruptcy) and someone will be headed for the outhouse (Federal indictments).
The market has assuredly already priced some of this mehem in already, as evidenced by last week's Roller Coaster ride in all markets. I am a Mortgage Banker and I saw some of the lowest mortgage rates available and some of the largest swings all in a few hour's time. My head is still spinning!!! ???
As with any market, there are always bargains to be had. You just need to identify your goals and capital in order to formulate a plan to pick them. I like oil/energy services & parts companies because of recent supply interruption and OPEC's lowered production. Because I'm in the mortgage market I have to say this may well be one of the best times to get money before it dissappears; no money at cheap rates sucks! Be bold if you are an investor, fourtune never smiled on those who never entered the ring.


As I'm typing this, breaking news reports the Bank of America deal for Merrill Lynch & Co. is a DONE! This is good for market consolidation and the terms appear to be favorable to ML retaining it's luster & BoA adding another jewel to be polished.
To paraphrase Bette Davis, "hold on it's gonna be a bumpy ride!"

 

[Ugaman72]

Well, as a Financial Advisor, I finally see a post I can relate to. The one thing I try to stress to clients is the fact that market downturns are normal. They happen every 4-6 years and this year was just the time for one. If you invest in solid long term investments with a solid diversity plan, then you'll be OK. Our analysts seem to think that the turn will come along in the first quarter of next year. The bond market is solid right now with some solid buys in the financial sector (with solid companies) with returns of close to 6.5-6.9. Great place to place long term money, and it's much better than the crappy CD rates we have now. Good mutual funds are also a great buy. As for what tomorrow will bring? I don't have a clue. I don't have the heart to worry about day to day fluctuations. I'll leave that to the Goldman Sachs guys

 

[StatHaldol]

Well, as a Financial Advisor, I finally see a post I can relate to. The one thing I try to stress to clients is the fact that market downturns are normal. They happen every 4-6 years and this year was just the time for one. If you invest in solid long term investments with a solid diversity plan, then you'll be OK. Our analysts seem to think that the turn will come along in the first quarter of next year. The bond market is solid right now with some solid buys in the financial sector (with solid companies) with returns of close to 6.5-6.9. Great place to place long term money, and it's much better than the crappy CD rates we have now. Good mutual funds are also a great buy. As for what tomorrow will bring? I don't have a clue. I don't have the heart to worry about day to day fluctuations. I'll leave that to the Goldman Sachs guys

In your opinion, what's a good average, no risk, yearly return on investment an individual could expect?
(About 6.5-6.9% as you mentioned in the bond market?)

 

[calstogy]

I believe we are in uncharted water. I would only put my money in companies that will survive, i.e. Intel for example. I would double check that my money or assets are not tied up with the next tier of banks and financial institutions that the may go under - What is that list? I think the Feds have been trying to figure it out for the last six months. The situation is serious.


- Ric

 

[StatHaldol]

.......The situation is serious.
- Ric

I believe that too; I believe we live in times that will get even more interesting in the next few months.

 

[moki]

Here's the European indices:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

I expect we'll see something similar in the USA. ie, lots of red. Could be a decent buying opportunity, though.

In your opinion, what's a good average, no risk, yearly return on investment an individual could expect?
(About 6.5-6.9% as you mentioned in the bond market?)

There's no such thing as "no risk". Getting into your car each morning is a risk, albeit a calculated one. So it is with investing. You need to figure out your risk tolerance, the goal you have in mind for investing, and the term you have in mind for investing. All of these will factor into where you should put your money.

 

[AVB]

So far it hasn't hurt the exchange rates although there was a 2% fluctuation last night it is back to where it was (EUR & GBP) at COB Friday.

 

[{tpc}]

From strictly an outsiders point of view (i'm not in any market, at all), does anyone but me get concerned that maybe Bank of America owns too much stuff?

Buy buy buy seems to be their motto, but at some point I think they will wake up and find themselves spread pretty thin....

 

[AVB]

Even with picking up Merrill Lynch BOA will be a smaller financial institution then Citibank but I agree they are cutting it close since they haven't digested all of the CountryWide acquisition yet.

From strictly an outsiders point of view (i'm not in any market, at all), does anyone but me get concerned that maybe Bank of America owns too much stuff?

Buy buy buy seems to be their motto, but at some point I think they will wake up and find themselves spread pretty thin....

 

[Ugaman72]

Well, as a Financial Advisor, I finally see a post I can relate to. The one thing I try to stress to clients is the fact that market downturns are normal. They happen every 4-6 years and this year was just the time for one. If you invest in solid long term investments with a solid diversity plan, then you'll be OK. Our analysts seem to think that the turn will come along in the first quarter of next year. The bond market is solid right now with some solid buys in the financial sector (with solid companies) with returns of close to 6.5-6.9. Great place to place long term money, and it's much better than the crappy CD rates we have now. Good mutual funds are also a great buy. As for what tomorrow will bring? I don't have a clue. I don't have the heart to worry about day to day fluctuations. I'll leave that to the Goldman Sachs guys

In your opinion, what's a good average, no risk, yearly return on investment an individual could expect?
(About 6.5-6.9% as you mentioned in the bond market?)

Well, the words that make me pause are the "no risk" words in your post. Everything carries risk, even those investments that are insured. I try to remind people that insured risk is no better than risk from great companies. As long as you're buying investment grade bonds (I try to buy AA or higher for my clients), then the risk is minimal. I try to gain people around 6-10 percent a year over the long term depending on their risk and age. Younger people can be more heavily diversified into higher risk mutual funds and a smaller percentage of bonds. My lower risk, older age people, are more heavily weighted towards good bonds and more income producing mutual funds. The key words are long term and diversity. With those two in mind, 8 percent a year should be a attainable goal.

 

[grateful1]

Who'w willing to step up and NAME NAMES?

 

[tigger]

In your opinion, what's a good average, no risk, yearly return on investment an individual could expect?
(About 6.5-6.9% as you mentioned in the bond market?)

The really is no such thing.

Treasuries are considered the safest investments in terms of safety of your principal, yielding nominal rates of around 2.63, 3.52 and 4.21% for the 5, 10 and 30 year issues respectively. Factor in inflationary and currency risks and your real yield will likely be substantially less.

As far as investing in solid names goes, we've seen several highly regarded companies (most if not all in the financial sector) go under or get badly beaten up in recent months/weeks. As has been mentioned above, diversification is key across asset classes, sectors, and the issues within those sectors.

 

[grateful1]

How are you financial guys with relationships?

I hope more desicive than in this thread!

:sign:

 

[Infinity]

How are you financial guys with relationships?

I hope more desicive than in this thread!

:sign:

LMAO @ Gary

These are sure strange times and most definitely unchartered waters. I mean, WTF, my wife just asked me what our FDIC looks like at Wells Fargo.

Hey, this is Wells Fargo, how can she ask me that question. Well, look what's happening, anything is possible, right? Holy crap!

Brian

 

[AVB]

Joint account FDIC insures to 200K so you're either doing really well or it doesn't matter at this point.

 

[Infinity]

Joint account FDIC insures to 200K so you're either doing really well or it doesn't matter at this point.

I know what it insures to Ray and hence my post.

That's my point...big guys are falling down.

Actually a quick edit...Wells Fargo insure one joint account for $100K But you can have two accounts insured for $100K, so a total of $200K. You switch the primary holder around in each account.
Don't all banks work this way?

Brian

 

[StatHaldol]

Well, as a Financial Advisor, I finally see a post I can relate to. The one thing I try to stress to clients is the fact that market downturns are normal. They happen every 4-6 years and this year was just the time for one. If you invest in solid long term investments with a solid diversity plan, then you'll be OK. Our analysts seem to think that the turn will come along in the first quarter of next year. The bond market is solid right now with some solid buys in the financial sector (with solid companies) with returns of close to 6.5-6.9. Great place to place long term money, and it's much better than the crappy CD rates we have now. Good mutual funds are also a great buy. As for what tomorrow will bring? I don't have a clue. I don't have the heart to worry about day to day fluctuations. I'll leave that to the Goldman Sachs guys

In your opinion, what's a good average, no risk, yearly return on investment an individual could expect?
(About 6.5-6.9% as you mentioned in the bond market?)

Well, the words that make me pause are the "no risk" words in your post. Everything carries risk, even those investments that are insured. I try to remind people that insured risk is no better than risk from great companies. As long as you're buying investment grade bonds (I try to buy AA or higher for my clients), then the risk is minimal. I try to gain people around 6-10 percent a year over the long term depending on their risk and age. Younger people can be more heavily diversified into higher risk mutual funds and a smaller percentage of bonds. My lower risk, older age people, are more heavily weighted towards good bonds and more income producing mutual funds. The key words are long term and diversity. With those two in mind, 8 percent a year should be a attainable goal.

8% is good; my wife and I have been buying tax liens since 2002. It started out as a hobby. I love an auction and I love small town court houses (I know it's strange). It involves a little leg work but we make about 14% a year. Our only "problem" is, in the past, people would usually redeem after about 18 months. Now it's about 30-36 months. (Still good interest, 5% initially and 12% a year)

 

[Ugaman72]

Here's a name I can throw out there. It's a Brazilian Oil company named PBR (no not Pabst Blue Ribbon), but "Petroleo Brasileiro". I have some clients doing well on it. Worth some investigation. The symbol is PBR...read up.