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Fidel is "sick" (again), Hillary wants to open the floodgate

Johnny-O!

Johnny-O!

Well-Known Member
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Jul 9, 2007
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Looking through some of the Miami Herald blogs, I see that Fidel is "sick" again. Several Latin American presidents have visited Cuba in the last few months only to comment that they did not get a chance to see him. Russia has commented that Chavez "buried him alive", as his most recent faux pas indicated that Fidel is alive only in spirit. I guess the embalming fluids are starting to stink. Now our beloved Hillary was on the hill yesterday saying that this administration needs to do whatever possible to remove the travel and remittance restrictions. Can we say Herf boys and girls? John
 
Just a matter of time now.

Cuba is going to get crushed here shortly, it's non-obvious but Cuba was propping itself up with donations From Chavez paid for on oil profits. Venezuela is so oil inefficient (because they fired/jailed every oil scientist that didn't have his picture above their bed) that they only made enough money for themselves when oil prices were high, they made enough for cuba when oil prices were ridiculous.

Now chavez doesn't even have money.

The point, oil money has stopped financing Cuba and they should enter final-crisis-death-spiral mode in a few months, at that point we'll need to open the floodgates just to allow enough tourism and trade money to provide for their basic services.
 
dagoR6 said:
Just a matter of time now.

Cuba is going to get crushed here shortly, it's non-obvious but Cuba was propping itself up with donations From Chavez paid for on oil profits. Venezuela is so oil inefficient (because they fired/jailed every oil scientist that didn't have his picture above their bed) that they only made enough money for themselves when oil prices were high, they made enough for cuba when oil prices were ridiculous.

Now chavez doesn't even have money.

The point, oil money has stopped financing Cuba and they should enter final-crisis-death-spiral mode in a few months, at that point we'll need to open the floodgates just to allow enough tourism and trade money to provide for their basic services.
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You think oil prices are going to stay this low for an extended period of time?

The same thing was said about Cuba after the Soviet Union collapsed, and they surivived. I don't think Cuba is in any more danger of collapsing than the U.S (especially with how the U.S. economy is doing now).

Even if the embargo is lifted, which is likely several years away at the earliest, it will be several years after that before you see Cuban cigars sold at your local B&M. Its nice to see changes being made in Cuba-U.S. relationships, but I wouldn't expect any dramatic changes in terms of the embargo anytime soon.
 
Mike33 said:
You think oil prices are going to stay this low for an extended period of time?

The same thing was said about Cuba after the Soviet Union collapsed, and they surivived. I don't think Cuba is in any more danger of collapsing than the U.S (especially with how the U.S. economy is doing now).

Even if the embargo is lifted, which is likely several years away at the earliest, it will be several years after that before you see Cuban cigars sold at your local B&M. Its nice to see changes being made in Cuba-U.S. relationships, but I wouldn't expect any dramatic changes in terms of the embargo anytime soon.
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It's just my opinion and my two cents so to speak. If I could accurately predict the price of oil I'd be sitting in my palace trading oil futures all day long.

I work in the Oil & Gas industry and so the inner workings of it are something that I spend way too much time caring about. I think in a general sense that oil will stay low for a long time unless hyperinflation occurs. We have plenty of supply and it seems supply/demand has become a very small component of price, the larger being speculation (low now) and inflation.

Oil is a dollar denominated commodity, meaning that even Europeans convert there money to dollars then buy it. So, when the dollar is weak the price of oil goes up. As we are in a deflation, the price of oil has decreased. Normally inflation and speculation are really small components, but these are different times.

Back on subject, Venezuela supplies a lot of financial assistance to Cuba paid for after they nationalized their Oil companies. Obviously that funding is (as of today) gone. Cuba has weathered these problems before (like with the USSR) but truth is that Cuba and North Korea and Vietnam are way worse off once the USSR closed. I'm not sure how much they have left as their Generacion Y movement grows.
 
Raul really wants to cozy up to the US, and Obama might be open to the idea of repealing the embargo.

Personally, I believe if it weren't for the large portion of fiercely anti-Castro Cuban exiles in a certain key swing state, the embargo would've ended in the 70's.

I've long been of the opinion that the embargo has done more to help Castro, rather than harm him. It's nothing but a very convenient thing for Castro to blame all of Cuba's problems on (rather than his own party's mismanagement and failed policies). Plus, it only serves to insulate Cubans from outside influence.

Considering the liberalizations so far under Raul, I believe dropping the embargo can only further help the Cuban people see what they've been missing out on for 50 years now, and lead to multi-party free elections and the end of the single-party, dictatorial state in Cuba. It could well be a part of a Cuban version of perestroika.
 
This reminds me of the Saturday Night Live, news flash that they did, "This breaking news just in, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead!"

He'll never die, they'll probably have their version of the red square in Havana and charge admission.


Anytime is a good time for herfing!
 
Mike33 said:
The same thing was said about Cuba after the Soviet Union collapsed, and they surivived. I don't think Cuba is in any more danger of collapsing than the U.S (especially with how the U.S. economy is doing now).
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Except that Cuba has already collapsed, as anyone who goes there as a non-tourist will tell you. Life in Cuba has been relatively horrendous for non-party favorites for quite some time.

I agree with you that it would be difficult for Cuba to collapse much further, though. The USA certainly has further to fall.

Black Plague said:
I've long been of the opinion that the embargo has done more to help Castro, rather than harm him. It's nothing but a very convenient thing for Castro to blame all of Cuba's problems on (rather than his own party's mismanagement and failed policies). Plus, it only serves to insulate Cubans from outside influence.
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If by "help" you mean keep him in power, then yes, I'd have to agree.
 
moki said:
Mike33 said:
The same thing was said about Cuba after the Soviet Union collapsed, and they surivived. I don't think Cuba is in any more danger of collapsing than the U.S (especially with how the U.S. economy is doing now).
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Except that Cuba has already collapsed, as anyone who goes there as a non-tourist will tell you. Life in Cuba has been relatively horrendous for non-party favorites for quite some time.

I agree with you that it would be difficult for Cuba to collapse much further, though. The USA certainly has further to fall.
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Not in the traditional meaning of the word collapse they haven't, unless suddenly the country's basic services aren't functioning and there is not a government to speak of. Agreed that life in Cuba is probably terrible (I say probably as I have no first hand knowledge and have read conflicting accounts of how bad life in Cuba actually is), but that doesn't mean the country has collapsed. Many countries survive in less than ideal conditions and function as a normal state; in fact, you could point to the vast majority of African and South American countries to find examples.
 
I'll be amazed if the embargo is lifted anytime soon. My guess is we're looking at 10 to 20 more years minimum.
 
Mike33 said:
Not in the traditional meaning of the word collapse they haven't, unless suddenly the country's basic services aren't functioning and there is not a government to speak of. Agreed that life in Cuba is probably terrible (I say probably as I have no first hand knowledge and have read conflicting accounts of how bad life in Cuba actually is), but that doesn't mean the country has collapsed. Many countries survive in less than ideal conditions and function as a normal state; in fact, you could point to the vast majority of African and South American countries to find examples.
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Life is fine if you're a party regular in good favor. The rest is dolled out on a whim... Johnny-O likely has more to say on the subject, but my mother goes down there on a regular basis on medical missions. The plight of the average person there is fairly grim.
 
I've heard some reports that Castro was in Russia recently and found THIS article. If the Russian/Cuban relationship returns to what it was during the Cold War, I can't see the US lifting the embargo. With oil pricies what they are, I can't imagine that Russia has the money to prop up more satellites like they did, but they are certainly acting like they want to return to that practice. Couple that with Russia's recent military exercises in and around Venezuela and it certainly like they are renewing their old ways.
 
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