don't you think it is time to load up on your favorite CC?

[personal User]

It appears that normalization is coming.
 
I have seen references to the effect that Cuba imports something like 30% of their tobacco.
 
The US is the largest cigar market in the world, and I expect that in an attempt to fill the demand, quality will go down and prices will go up. 
 
I recently loaded up on one favorite (since it was a limited edition), and am thinking now may well be the time to load up on other favorites.
 
Politics will determine the timing, but for those of us who are now accessing the current supply I'm thinking that now may be the "golden years" for the short term (ten years or so, who knows?) and it it time to load up on any favorites.
 
What do you think?
 
 

 

[Breedy]

If you have the spare coin and really like something then go for it. Anything more is probably over kill, it's not like Cuba produces the only top notch cigars. As buyers turn towards the elusive Cuban, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a slight dip in price on Nics, Dominican and others

 

[Bsneed51]

 As buyers turn towards the elusive Cuban, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a slight dip in price on Nics, Dominican and others

 **fingers crossed

 

[BlindedByScience]

I've said before and still believe that the short term effect of US citizens being able to buy Cuban smokes will be twofold;  One, prices will go through the roof as everyone that's ever wanted to try a 'real Cuban cigar' tries to buy one.  Two, counterfeits and fakes will be rampant.  Some of them will be quite good.  I'd expect more than one retailer to be fooled by fakes, and sell them as authentic when they are indeed not.  It's going to be a real mess for a few years.
 
I'd say if you have the storage and jack to put a few favorite cigars away, now is a very good time.
 
As they say, one man's opinion......

 

[kona1000]

I've said before and still believe that the short term effect of US citizens being able to buy Cuban smokes will be twofold;  One, prices will go through the roof as everyone that's ever wanted to try a 'real Cuban cigar' tries to buy one.  Two, counterfeits and fakes will be rampant.  Some of them will be quite good.  I'd expect more than one retailer to be fooled by fakes, and sell them as authentic when they are indeed not.  It's going to be a real mess for a few years.
 
I'd say if you have the storage and jack to put a few favorite cigars away, now is a very good time.
 
As they say, one man's opinion......

Prices will go through the roof because you think American businesses will raise the prices on unwitting customers or manufactures will raise their wholesale price?
Cuban IMPORTS 30% of their tobacco.

What is that about?

I would say defiantly buy them and let them age.

 

[MichaelD]

I still don't think that we will be seeing the cigar embargo get lifted any time soon. The biggest stick/carrot the US possess is the embargo and only Congress can lift the embargo. Nothing that Obama is currently doing can change that. 
 
As written, the statue is pretty clear with what is required for the embargo to be lifted. It would require at a minimum 1) the freeing of all political prisoners, 2) full democratically held elections and 3) resolving all of the property seizure issues (and related copyright issues) that resulted from the Cuban Revolution. And Cuba has it's own list of demands which include the return of Guantanamo Bay and financial restoration for lost income resulting from the embargo. From my perch here in DC, none of those things are happening soon.
 
Also, I'm not sure how much of a rush on CC consumption there will be. Those that travel and had any sort of casual interest would have most likely indulged whether it have been counterfeit or not. Hardcore consumers already have figured out a way to get access, but those that may be the causal smoker, would certainly start buying them to sample as they become available.

 

[BlindedByScience]

 

I've said before and still believe that the short term effect of US citizens being able to buy Cuban smokes will be twofold;  One, prices will go through the roof as everyone that's ever wanted to try a 'real Cuban cigar' tries to buy one.  Two, counterfeits and fakes will be rampant.  Some of them will be quite good.  I'd expect more than one retailer to be fooled by fakes, and sell them as authentic when they are indeed not.  It's going to be a real mess for a few years.
 
I'd say if you have the storage and jack to put a few favorite cigars away, now is a very good time.
 
As they say, one man's opinion......

Prices will go through the roof because you think American businesses will raise the prices on unwitting customers or manufactures will raise their wholesale price?
Cuban IMPORTS 30% of their tobacco.

What is that about?

I would say defiantly buy them and let them age.
 

 
I think it's simple supply and demand.  The demand will far outstrip the supply of Cuban's when the gate opens, causing wholesale and retail prices to jump dramatically and creating an environment where fakes will be rampant.  If we thought OpusX gouging was bad, I think we won't believe what happens when Cuban cigars are finally legal.
 
I do believe it will settle down over time, but that may take a few years.
 
IMHO......

 

[golfgar]

I for one have been stocking up a bit in this stable market.  The new CEO of JR Cigars, Rob Norris is forecasting 2-3 years before trade normalization so that is kind of my time frame.  He believes there will more substantial blending (than already exists see above kona 1000 post) of Cuban tobacco with that originating in other countries.  So the whole production will likely morph into many different blends.  This is not new, as we know, and existed prior to the embargo.  So things you like now will likely change and that goes for non-CC's as well.  IMHO if you like certain cigars now, stock up as they may change in the future, taking note of what ages well for a few years, as has been pointed out in other threads.  Just my humble $.02.

 

[Spad31]

I for one have been stocking up a bit in this stable market.  The new CEO of JR Cigars, Rob Norris is forecasting 2-3 years before trade normalization so that is kind of my time frame.  He believes there will more substantial blending (than already exists see above kona 1000 post) of Cuban tobacco with that originating in other countries.  So the whole production will likely morph into many different blends.  This is not new, as we know, and existed prior to the embargo.  So things you like now will likely change and that goes for non-CC's as well.  IMHO if you like certain cigars now, stock up as they may change in the future, taking note of what ages well for a few years, as has been pointed out in other threads.  Just my humble $.02.

You're...you're encouraging me to spend more of my son's college fund on cigars while my wife is out of town, aren't you? Bless you, Good Sir.
 
_trey

 

[groucho898]

If you have the spare coin and really like something then go for it. Anything more is probably over kill, it's not like Cuba produces the only top notch cigars. As buyers turn towards the elusive Cuban, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a slight dip in price on Nics, Dominican and others

Agreed, but Cuba is the only place that produces Cuban cigars, not to sound snarky. Many smokers are extremely partial to that special flavor that only exists in a quality Cuban cigar. I believe "Personal User" might be more interested in prices but I am more worried about the signature Cuban flavor diminishing as things change, regardless of price.

 

[groucho898]

I for one have been stocking up a bit in this stable market.  The new CEO of JR Cigars, Rob Norris is forecasting 2-3 years before trade normalization so that is kind of my time frame.  He believes there will more substantial blending (than already exists see above kona 1000 post) of Cuban tobacco with that originating in other countries.  So the whole production will likely morph into many different blends.  This is not new, as we know, and existed prior to the embargo.  So things you like now will likely change and that goes for non-CC's as well.  IMHO if you like certain cigars now, stock up as they may change in the future, taking note of what ages well for a few years, as has been pointed out in other threads.  Just my humble $.02.

 
 
Many scattered points  I would like to make....  I have been worried for years about something changing in Cuba that causes that signature flavor to diminish - be it due to different fertilizer, different weather or pesticides or a change in a bird species pooping (I'm not joking) it's called terroir. Basically speaking Cuba's soil, climate, flora and fauna etc.... is what makes the tobacco have that certain flavor  - which is why Cuban seed planted in the DR or Nicaragua (although great tobacco!) does NOT have that signature Cuban flavor.
 
It is something in the Cuban environment and tobacco and not something in their "process" of harvest, cure, age, production - noting that this process has been/is totally duplicated in other Cigar manufacturing countries.
 
High prices aside (a problem, agreed) my concern with an increase in production, and other factors that will slowly change on the island once the embargo is lifted is that Cuba over time might produce tobacco that is similar to other Non Cuban leaf. I am reaching here to make an exaggerated point but maybe after the island opens and a handful of McDonald's opens up something in the waste produced will slowly kill off a species of earth worms that are vital to that Cuban flavor - or the terroir will be affected (I know, call the guys in the white suits, get me in a straight jacket!)
 
But anything is possible.
 
Again, not to say that non-Cuban leaf is sub par - but blindfolded, any Cuban cigar aficionado easily knows a Cuban from a non Cuban. Obviously taste is subjective but If you like that signature flavor as do I, there is no substitute.
 
Lastly I am used to purchasing stronger more complex Cuban cigars (I live in South America so access is not a problem) that have the structure to age. Although at times some of these cigars will temporarily "shut down" over the years, flavor wise, I find that 10-20 years of box age only helps. I have some Churchills from 1987 that are exquisite. I rarely experience a smoke that gets worse with age, but then again I am not exactly laying down Epicure #1s. JMHO no disrespect intended.
 
Terroir
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terroir
http://www.terroir-france.com/theclub/meaning.htm

 

[personal User]

I believe "Personal User" might be more interested in prices 

Actually, I am more concerned about potentially diminishing quality, instability of brands and market turmoil.
 
I understand that the US is by far the largest cigar market in the world. If you suddenly open up to a huge market, there is only so much quality tobacco to go around. I do not predict but will not be surprised at all if CC quality goes down while price goes up and availability becomes problematic.
 
I smoke from various places other than Cuba, but find myself leaning more and more towards cubans.
 
I am also smoking less, but spending more per stick. 
 
I stocked up on a limited edition cc because there will be no more and I enjoy them. That made me think that it is quite possible that soon what we take for granted as CC's will no longer be available and probably time to stock up on others as well to have what we want to smoke while waiting on markets to stabilize.