punk_lawyer
Habeas Punkus
- Joined
- May 6, 2008
- Messages
- 2,060
Oh, sure, you can enjoy the races of the Breeder's Cup but the Kentucky Derby is THE feature race for horse racing every year in the United States. I may be a buckeye but my University of Kentucky diploma carries enough street credibility for me to comment on the greatness of the race.
The only problem with handicapping the Kentucky Derby is that ALL of the horses are good enough to win on a given day. Each horse has some quality to its pedigree. The early favorite, Eskendereya, is OUT. Endorsement, another reasonably good horse, is OUT. Devil May Care, the filly who jumped from the Oaks to the Derby is IN. The post positions are announced and, with a field of 20, you always have to pay attention to the starting gate.
OK, so with deference to my friend KMac, my early review of the race is this:
Awesome Act - would have been a favorite of mine but, frankly, I dislike the 16 post for him. He is no stranger to racing from outside but this is far outside and he is going to hit too much traffic.
Lookin at Lucky - would have been another favorite of mine but, frankly, I dislike the 1 post for him. Put it this way, he has 19 horses to his right that are all going to want to get to the rail. He is going to get knocked around some. That being said, this horse is very very very good. I think he will hit the board but I am seeing him falling a little short of the win.
Sidney's Candy - This horse has been BLAZING the tracks. 6 lifetime starts, 4 wins, 1 place and 1 4th. Amazing speed figures. On a sunny day with a good post draw, I would love this horse. Too bad that he drew the 20th gate. He will have to run so much extra distance and fight so many others that I just cannot see him winning. This is especially true since I don't have faith in his jockey. I would love to see it, but I don't think so.
So, by now you know that some of the real favorites have big time problems with the gate positions.
This is Wednesday and the race isn't until Saturday. I am going to spend some time plowing through the pace figures of prior races to see what this is going to look like. My impressions right now are this:
Lookin at Lucky - should hit the board
Conveyance - could press the pace and is a steal at the current odds of 12-1. Five lifetime starts with four wins and one place (lost to Endorsement who is not running in this race). The speed figures suggest that his success is no fluke.
Jackson Bend - worth a look because the speed figures are there. Also, this poor guy kept losing to Eskendereya. I am bothered by Borel jumping ship on this one to choose Super Saver but Mike Smith is not a slouch as a jockey.
I will update as I make some determinations on wagers. Good luck on race day everyone!
The only problem with handicapping the Kentucky Derby is that ALL of the horses are good enough to win on a given day. Each horse has some quality to its pedigree. The early favorite, Eskendereya, is OUT. Endorsement, another reasonably good horse, is OUT. Devil May Care, the filly who jumped from the Oaks to the Derby is IN. The post positions are announced and, with a field of 20, you always have to pay attention to the starting gate.
OK, so with deference to my friend KMac, my early review of the race is this:
Awesome Act - would have been a favorite of mine but, frankly, I dislike the 16 post for him. He is no stranger to racing from outside but this is far outside and he is going to hit too much traffic.
Lookin at Lucky - would have been another favorite of mine but, frankly, I dislike the 1 post for him. Put it this way, he has 19 horses to his right that are all going to want to get to the rail. He is going to get knocked around some. That being said, this horse is very very very good. I think he will hit the board but I am seeing him falling a little short of the win.
Sidney's Candy - This horse has been BLAZING the tracks. 6 lifetime starts, 4 wins, 1 place and 1 4th. Amazing speed figures. On a sunny day with a good post draw, I would love this horse. Too bad that he drew the 20th gate. He will have to run so much extra distance and fight so many others that I just cannot see him winning. This is especially true since I don't have faith in his jockey. I would love to see it, but I don't think so.
So, by now you know that some of the real favorites have big time problems with the gate positions.
This is Wednesday and the race isn't until Saturday. I am going to spend some time plowing through the pace figures of prior races to see what this is going to look like. My impressions right now are this:
Lookin at Lucky - should hit the board
Conveyance - could press the pace and is a steal at the current odds of 12-1. Five lifetime starts with four wins and one place (lost to Endorsement who is not running in this race). The speed figures suggest that his success is no fluke.
Jackson Bend - worth a look because the speed figures are there. Also, this poor guy kept losing to Eskendereya. I am bothered by Borel jumping ship on this one to choose Super Saver but Mike Smith is not a slouch as a jockey.
I will update as I make some determinations on wagers. Good luck on race day everyone!
