N8NOE
New Member
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2005
- Messages
- 97
Got this from a Friend on ( Alt.Smokers.Cigars) and thought I'd pass it along!..
Very Good Reasoninig.. And worth a READ..
.....................................................
I haven't seen a post that covers this in much detail, so I am offering
my views. I am confident this will not skew future bidding because it
seems no two people around here agree about anything. ;-)
--------
L=Number of Lots up for bid at one time
R=Retail price at Cigars International (CI) or anywhere else
B=Winning Bid
Optimization=Minimizing B/R ratio that wins.
--------
Avoid--Cao, Fuente, Padron--other big names. These have B/R ratios that
often exceed 1.0.
Avoid--Robusto, Rothschild vitolas. Highest B/R ratio of all sizes.
Avoid--Lots with Maduro in the title. Higher B/R than others.
Avoid--CI's top ten sellers from their web page. High B/R for obvious
reasons.
--------
Best Strategies:
(1) L greater than 2 is best scenario.
Bid early and on one lot using autobid. Set max at your acceptable B/R.
This works well because it reduces the probability that one or two high
bidders will make you lose and their high bids will not raise your
autobid unless all lots have identical (or higher) bids by others.
Being early with autobid means you are first in line at any price and
will win at the lowest possible price.
(2) L of 1 or 2 is where you should not use autobid. Pick your B/R and
bid it and don't look again until the auction is over. Anything can
happen on these but if you use autobid there is too high a likelihood
that your highest autobid is needed. Don't look at it again because you
do not want to get into a bidding war.
(3) Bidding on Multiple Lots. Don't autobid. If you do one equal bid
will force
up your multiple so it increases likelihood you go to maximum autobid.
Pick one price early and don't look back.
(4) Bidding late. Identify low B/R with L greater than 2. Do not bid
on all lots because that permits original bidder or bidders to begin
bidding war. Autobid for one lot is optimal here.
-----
Shipping Tips
--Boxes have lowest shipping cost per cigar. Bid on them if you know
you like them.
--Use weekly billing to minimize shipping cost per cigar.
--Bunch purchases so you bid one week, then stay away from the site on
other weeks (good luck on that one ;-) ).
------
Learning Tip
--Bid 1.00 or very low (less than .3) B/R on one lot. You will have to
bid early to do this. You will almost always lose but will have record
of winning bids in your "Bids Lost" list.
------
nada yadda yadda and human nature is inherently unpredictable so these
strategies, while optimal over the long run, cannot assure optimal
results on any given bid....
-----
I think cigarbid when used properly is great for trying new sticks and
I think there are some excellent values there. I currently have a
favorite never reviewed here that is dirt cheap and seems to be below
the radar of other bidders. It will cost you a bunch of Cubans to find
out what it is. ;-)
Very Good Reasoninig.. And worth a READ..
.....................................................
I haven't seen a post that covers this in much detail, so I am offering
my views. I am confident this will not skew future bidding because it
seems no two people around here agree about anything. ;-)
--------
L=Number of Lots up for bid at one time
R=Retail price at Cigars International (CI) or anywhere else
B=Winning Bid
Optimization=Minimizing B/R ratio that wins.
--------
Avoid--Cao, Fuente, Padron--other big names. These have B/R ratios that
often exceed 1.0.
Avoid--Robusto, Rothschild vitolas. Highest B/R ratio of all sizes.
Avoid--Lots with Maduro in the title. Higher B/R than others.
Avoid--CI's top ten sellers from their web page. High B/R for obvious
reasons.
--------
Best Strategies:
(1) L greater than 2 is best scenario.
Bid early and on one lot using autobid. Set max at your acceptable B/R.
This works well because it reduces the probability that one or two high
bidders will make you lose and their high bids will not raise your
autobid unless all lots have identical (or higher) bids by others.
Being early with autobid means you are first in line at any price and
will win at the lowest possible price.
(2) L of 1 or 2 is where you should not use autobid. Pick your B/R and
bid it and don't look again until the auction is over. Anything can
happen on these but if you use autobid there is too high a likelihood
that your highest autobid is needed. Don't look at it again because you
do not want to get into a bidding war.
(3) Bidding on Multiple Lots. Don't autobid. If you do one equal bid
will force
up your multiple so it increases likelihood you go to maximum autobid.
Pick one price early and don't look back.
(4) Bidding late. Identify low B/R with L greater than 2. Do not bid
on all lots because that permits original bidder or bidders to begin
bidding war. Autobid for one lot is optimal here.
-----
Shipping Tips
--Boxes have lowest shipping cost per cigar. Bid on them if you know
you like them.
--Use weekly billing to minimize shipping cost per cigar.
--Bunch purchases so you bid one week, then stay away from the site on
other weeks (good luck on that one ;-) ).
------
Learning Tip
--Bid 1.00 or very low (less than .3) B/R on one lot. You will have to
bid early to do this. You will almost always lose but will have record
of winning bids in your "Bids Lost" list.
------
nada yadda yadda and human nature is inherently unpredictable so these
strategies, while optimal over the long run, cannot assure optimal
results on any given bid....
-----
I think cigarbid when used properly is great for trying new sticks and
I think there are some excellent values there. I currently have a
favorite never reviewed here that is dirt cheap and seems to be below
the radar of other bidders. It will cost you a bunch of Cubans to find
out what it is. ;-)
