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Once the embargo lifted......

A

alpi57

New Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2006
Messages
87
What do you guys think about this?
Are we going to see the abundance that exist in other parts of the world?
What is the competition going to do about it?
How will that impact quality?
How will it impact the prices?

............food for thought.
 
bfreebern said:
Not going to happen in my lifetime.
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Don't talk like that. Hardly anybody dies of syphilis anymore.



IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
In the meantime, I am happy to buy some aged ISOMs from you.
 
smokelaw1 said:
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
Click to expand...
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
 
BlindedByScience said:
smokelaw1 said:
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
Click to expand...
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
Click to expand...

Distributors control what we get in this country. What about all of their non-cuban brands? Don't you think those brand names will a have a say in all of this?
 
I dont think they will crank them out. I have a feeling they will continue to produce them in the amounts they do now.

With less of a supply and the greater the demand the more they can charge for Cuban products.

It will be funny to see CUBA as the biggest capilists in the world once they move away from the old ways.

Imagine all the ex-nationalists in FL with loads of money waiting to go back to Cuba to open up businesses. I think Cuba will see a huge boom in Tourism and real estate ventures if they are ever allowed to go back. :thumbs: .
 
alpi57 said:
BlindedByScience said:
smokelaw1 said:
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
Click to expand...
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
Click to expand...

Distributors control what we get in this country. What about all of their non-cuban brands? Don't you think those brand names will a have a say in all of this?
Click to expand...

What is going lately? Why in hell do you insist on wasting this site's time talking about something that isn't worth wasting bandwidth on BECAUSE IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON.

Hey, I know, let's talk about a HUGE meteor hitting the earth!!! Ya never know, it COULD happen!!! As a matter of fact, it already DID happen, that's what killed the dinousars!! Oh my, what will happen if a meteor hits the earth AGAIN? ??? They say it COULD happen on April 13, 2029. Let's talk about THAT which will happen before any embargo is lifted. The meteor is 2004 MN4 so have at it and please stop wasting everyone's time about pure bullshit regarding the end of the Trading With The Enemy Act. :rolleyes:
 
I don't think that it will affect anything as far as the B&M goes. Some of them already gouge us on Opus, Padron 26 &64, VSG, ESG, so on and so on. Globaly, Cuban cigars have been sold w/o any problems and a great many cigar smokers have already found a way to get the cigars anyways.

I do not see the embargo lifted anytime soon though. There is talk about the Cuban offshore oil deposits, but I really don't think that either Fidel or Raul would be interested in starting up relations w/ the US while they hold the bag(So to speak). Too many other countries are looking into purchasing the oil who already have good trade relations with Cuba.
 
indyrob said:
I don't think that it will affect anything as far as the B&M goes. Some of them already gouge us on Opus, Padron 26 &64, VSG, ESG, so on and so on. Globaly, Cuban cigars have been sold w/o any problems and a great many cigar smokers have already found a way to get the cigars anyways.

I do not see the embargo lifted anytime soon though. There is talk about the Cuban offshore oil deposits, but I really don't think that either Fidel or Raul would be interested in starting up relations w/ the US while they hold the bag(So to speak). Too many other countries are looking into purchasing the oil who already have good trade relations with Cuba.
Click to expand...



Cuba oil...linky from Feb 2006.
 
Hey, I know, let's talk about a HUGE meteor hitting the earth!!! Ya never know, it COULD happen!!! As a matter of fact, it already DID happen, that's what killed the dinousars!! Oh my, what will happen if a meteor hits the earth AGAIN? ??? They say it COULD happen on April 13, 2029. Let's talk about THAT which will happen before any embargo is lifted. The meteor is 2004 MN4 so have at it and please stop wasting everyone's time about pure bullshit regarding the end of the Trading With The Enemy Act. :rolleyes:
[/quote]


Now now my dear sir. Learn from my last thread. I am getting a spanking over my attitude. So please watch the attitude and the words. Thank you kindly.
I am optimistic about the embargo. It will happen in our lifetime.
 
Everyone seems to overlook the obvious when this discussion begins. But, I will agree that supply will decrease as demand increases, in the short term. Cuba really only has minority ownership in Habanos SA now that Altadis came in. If and when the embargo lifts, this could change to an even smaller percentage. I'm sure the big thinkers at Altadis already know exactly what is going to happen. The big question however, is not Habanos SA and Altadis, but what about the farm land that is being used to grow the tobacco going into Cuban cigars. If the embargo lifts, will the land be diverted back to it's original owners, prior to the revolution? You cna bet your sweet a$$ there will be legal proceedings from the ex-patriates in Miami, to make this happen. So, say they get it back... who do you think they are going to sell their tobacco to? Altadis, who was in partnership with the communist regime? Or maybe the manufacturer/growers who left Cuba? Or will it be an American tobacco company who will pay top dollar?? The lifting of the embargo is going to cause major turmoil in Cuba if it is done irrationally, which is what the ex-patriates really want. There could be no Cuban tobacco to even roll cigars with, if the embargo lifts.
 
indyrob said:
I don't think that it will affect anything as far as the B&M goes. Some of them already gouge us on Opus, Padron 26 &64, VSG, ESG, so on and so on. Globaly, Cuban cigars have been sold w/o any problems and a great many cigar smokers have already found a way to get the cigars anyways.

I do not see the embargo lifted anytime soon though. There is talk about the Cuban offshore oil deposits, but I really don't think that either Fidel or Raul would be interested in starting up relations w/ the US while they hold the bag(So to speak). Too many other countries are looking into purchasing the oil who already have good trade relations with Cuba.
Click to expand...

Yes, oil deposits in the order of 150 million barrels in north coast near Holguin. Canadian company found it but more likely the Chinese will get to dig it out, at least that is the talk unless the US have something to say about it. But this is the high sulfur crude and hard and expensive to refine. Interestingly enough there were 5 companys bidding for it and one was American.
 
coventrycat86 said:
alpi57 said:
BlindedByScience said:
smokelaw1 said:
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
Click to expand...
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
Click to expand...

Distributors control what we get in this country. What about all of their non-cuban brands? Don't you think those brand names will a have a say in all of this?
Click to expand...

What is going lately? Why in hell do you insist on wasting this site's time talking about something that isn't worth wasting bandwidth on BECAUSE IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON.

Hey, I know, let's talk about a HUGE meteor hitting the earth!!! Ya never know, it COULD happen!!! As a matter of fact, it already DID happen, that's what killed the dinousars!! Oh my, what will happen if a meteor hits the earth AGAIN? ??? They say it COULD happen on April 13, 2029. Let's talk about THAT which will happen before any embargo is lifted. The meteor is 2004 MN4 so have at it and please stop wasting everyone's time about pure bullshit regarding the end of the Trading With The Enemy Act. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...


We can't all just disregard that this is a CIGAR bulletin board. Whether this topic has been stomped to the ground or not, it is worthy of discussion. Especially with the recent happenings on the island.
 
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong. [/quote]
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
[/quote]

Distributors control what we get in this country. What about all of their non-cuban brands? Don't you think those brand names will a have a say in all of this?
[/quote]

What is going lately? Why in hell do you insist on wasting this site's time talking about something that isn't worth wasting bandwidth on BECAUSE IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON.

Hey, I know, let's talk about a HUGE meteor hitting the earth!!! Ya never know, it COULD happen!!! As a matter of fact, it already DID happen, that's what killed the dinousars!! Oh my, what will happen if a meteor hits the earth AGAIN? ??? They say it COULD happen on April 13, 2029. Let's talk about THAT which will happen before any embargo is lifted. The meteor is 2004 MN4 so have at it and please stop wasting everyone's time about pure bullshit regarding the end of the Trading With The Enemy Act. :rolleyes:
[/quote]


We can't all just disregard that this is a CIGAR bulletin board. Whether this topic has been stomped to the ground or not, it is worthy of discussion. Especially with the recent happenings on the island.
[/quote]

I know this topic has been beaten to death but in light of these new developments.........
 
coventrycat86 said:
alpi57 said:
BlindedByScience said:
smokelaw1 said:
....IF the embargo is lifted in the enar future, prices will go up, and quality will suffer. This is, of course, simply my opinion. I hope that I am very, very wrong.
Click to expand...
Basic supply and demand. Lots of folks that aren't cigar smokers will want to try a cuban "because they can". Folks that don't know better will buy them up "because they are 'better' and you can get 'em now".

This will continue for a while and like smokelaw1 says, prices will go up, availability will go down, and in an effort to cash in, the Cuban producers will crank 'em out and quality will most likely take a beating. For a while. Things will settle down and get back to "normal" at some point, but that may be a couple of years, depending.

Just a guess - B.B.S.
Click to expand...

Distributors control what we get in this country. What about all of their non-cuban brands? Don't you think those brand names will a have a say in all of this?
Click to expand...

What is going lately? Why in hell do you insist on wasting this site's time talking about something that isn't worth wasting bandwidth on BECAUSE IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON.

Hey, I know, let's talk about a HUGE meteor hitting the earth!!! Ya never know, it COULD happen!!! As a matter of fact, it already DID happen, that's what killed the dinousars!! Oh my, what will happen if a meteor hits the earth AGAIN? ??? They say it COULD happen on April 13, 2029. Let's talk about THAT which will happen before any embargo is lifted. The meteor is 2004 MN4 so have at it and please stop wasting everyone's time about pure bullshit regarding the end of the Trading With The Enemy Act. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Just as long as Bruce Willis and his crew are around to drill it ;)
 
Matt,

You bring up some very interesting points. If Castro croaks and the US steps in to establish a democratic government, then there's no reason why the embargo would not be lifted. I predict this will happen within the next 5 years. It's said that Raul is more hard-headed than Castro, and I don't think the US is going to stand by and watch Raul take over. There may be a major uprising in Cuba when Castro dies. No one knows for sure. There is a lot of press stating that the US is ready to move in and assist in creating a democratic govt when the time is right.

It's simple supply and demand. If the demand for Cuban's goes up, then so will the price. It's going to be a race for which B&M's can carry the Cuban's first. There are a lot of cigar shops in the US, and many of them will want a peice of the action. Quality may go down a bit. If quality and production remains the same, Cuban's in the US will be very expensive and hard to get.

There are a lot of possibilities. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
 
Luckily for Wilkey the CAO Moontrance supply will not be affected by Cuba.
 
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